Date Published
19/06/2024
Client
Daily Telegraph
Methodology
Savanta interviewed 17,812 UK adults aged 18+ online on 7-18 June 2024. Results were used within a multi-level regression and post stratification (MRP) model to provide estimates of current voting intention in the 632 seats in Great Britain which will be contested in the General Election on July 4th.
Multiple regression and post stratification (MRP) is an advanced modelling technique whereby we can ask voting intention to a large scale, nationally representative survey and, using the respondent’s demographic and voting data use this to map out how voting patterns are distributed across the country. This then allows us to produce predicted vote shares in each constituency and therefore predict a likely winner in each seat and the overall result of the General Election.