Savanta ComRes Political Tracker

Author:
Chris Hopkins, Associate Director

The latest Savanta ComRes tracker, including monthly political polls and voting intention

The last ten years have proven an unprecedently turbulent time in UK politics. We’ve had four General Elections, of which two resulted in hung parliaments, as well as two nationwide referendums, and countless more regional elections as devolution and the decentralisation of power away from Westminster and into the hands of voters has continued to yield unexpected results.

Understanding public opinion, and not just around election time, is proving increasingly important for policy makers, influencers, media commentators and business leaders alike, and as we enter a period in UK politics we’ve not seen in recent memory, that of a government with a healthy majority, public attitudes are no less significant.

At Savanta ComRes our in-house political research specialists are well equipped to help our clients understand public opinion within a constantly evolving political context, and our Savanta ComRes Political Tracker provides strategic insight into the dynamic political landscape in the UK.

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July Savanta ComRes Political Tracker slashes Conservative lead to just four points over Labour

Our latest Westminster Voting Intention has the Conservative Party extending their lead from last month, sitting at 43%, three points higher than June, while the Labour Party are on 37%, up just one point.

These gains have come at the expense of the Liberal Democrats who have slumped to just 6%, offering a bleak backdrop as they head into their leadership contest throughout August, with both contenders Layla Moran and Ed Davey presenting rather different ideas in order to reclaim their lost ground.


Favourability ratings

Individual approval ratings hint that the Conservative Party’s widened lead may paint an overly flattering portrait. Across the board, save for the widely popular Chancellor, Cabinet members are seeing their favourability numbers decline.

Boris Johnson’s personal approval ratings have continued their long decline since we began tracking in May, with the COVID-19 amnesty period coming to an end and Cummings-gate sticking to his reputation; his numbers also hit a new low this month as he dropped four points and tipped into negative territory (-2) for the first time ever in the Savanta ComRes Political Tracker.


Leaders and their policies

It is clear that Starmer has work to do. When the public are asked whether they like the leaders, their policies and their parties, a third of people surveyed said “I like both the leader and their policies” for Boris Johnson (29%) compared to two in five who say the say for Sir Keir Starmer (23%).

However, Sir Kier does have fewer people saying that they “dislike both the leader and their policies” than the current PM – 22% vs 33%.


Leaders and their parties

The differences are less stark when it comes to polling the leader and their party, but it is clear that Starmer needs time to build a policy platform and improve the image of his party before the public are going to warm to him.

Around two in five said “I like the leader but dislike their party” for both PM Boris Johnson (16%) and LOTO Sir Kier Starmer (21%).


Party characteristics

Party image, in particular, is something that the new Labour leader will need to address.

A quarter of the public say that they can trust the Conservatives with the economy (23%), compared with just over one in ten who say the same of Labour (13%).

Further, Labour (28%) are more likely to be seen as divided compared to the Conservative Party (20%), and it’s clear that Starmer will need to address these continued perceptions of disunity and economic incompetence if he’s to be a success.


PM vs LOTO

Despite the lag in the Westminster Voting Intention figures, Sir Keir Starmer’s personal ratings may be well-received at Labour HQ, as his favourability has seen an uptick of four points to +5.

This positivity is also reflected in the Best Prime Minister ratings, where the Labour leader has been on the receiving-end of a six-point swing in his favour against Boris Johnson.

While the incumbent PM still leads on this with 40% to Sir Keir’s 31%, it reflects a positive trajectory for the Leader of the Opposition since we last reported in June.


Sir Keir's first 100 days

In his first 100 days as both leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer is adjudged to be performing well by a ratio of 2:1 against those who believe he is performing poorly.

In fact, among 2019 Labour voters, over two thirds (69%) believe his performance as leader of the Labour Party has been good to date.


Data from our Coronavirus Daily Tracker shows...

Individual approval ratings for Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, prominent cabinet ministers, the government’s scientific and medical advisers, and Leader of the Opposition, Sir Keir Starmer.

Organisation approval ratings for the NHS, supermarkets, the armed forces, the police, UK government, and Premier League football clubs.

A tracker of UK adults’ views on levels of support provided by the government for different groups, including self-employed, small businesses, transport workers, and the NHS.

Find out more here


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