Savanta ComRes Political Tracker
The latest Savanta ComRes tracker, including monthly political polls and voting intention
The last ten years have proven an unprecedently turbulent time in UK politics. We’ve had four General Elections, of which two resulted in hung parliaments, as well as two nationwide referendums, and countless more regional elections as devolution and the decentralisation of power away from Westminster and into the hands of voters has continued to yield unexpected results.
Understanding public opinion, and not just around election time, is proving increasingly important for policy makers, influencers, media commentators and business leaders alike, and as we enter a period in UK politics we’ve not seen in recent memory, that of a government with a healthy majority, public attitudes are no less significant.
At Savanta ComRes our in-house political research specialists are well equipped to help our clients understand public opinion within a constantly evolving political context, and our Savanta ComRes Political Tracker provides strategic insight into the dynamic political landscape in the UK.
June Savanta ComRes Political Tracker slashes Conservative lead to just four points over Labour
The second poll in a new monthly series by Savanta ComRes gives the Conservative Party a much narrower 4-point lead over the Labour Party in the headline Westminster Voting Intention.
The poll has the Conservative Party on 40%, six points fewer than they achieved last month, while the Labour Party are on 36%, up three points. The Liberal Democrats are on 9% and other parties, including the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Northern Irish parties, on a combined 15%.
Since May, and the controversy surrounding the Prime Minister’s Chief Adviser breaking the lockdown rules set by the government, the favourability rating of Boris Johnson has dropped from +15 to just +2, while the ratings of key figures within his cabinet have also taken a slide; Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s ratings have dropped 3 points to +26, Dominic Raab’s have dropped 5 points to +2, and Matt Hancock’s have also dropped three points to +2.
Leaders and their policies
It is clear that Starmer has work to do. When the public are asked whether they like the leaders, their policies and their parties, a third of people surveyed said “I like both the leader and their policies” for Boris Johnson (33%) compared to two in five who say the say for Sir Keir Starmer (21%).
However, Sir Kier does have fewer people saying that they “dislike both the leader and their policies” than the current PM – 23% vs 30%.
Leaders and their parties
The differences are less stark when it comes to polling the leader and their party, but it is clear that Starmer needs time to build a policy platform and improve the image of his party before the public are going to warm to him.
Around two in five said “I like the leader but dislike their party” for both PM Boris Johnson (17%) and LOTO Sir Kier Starmer (21%).
Party image, in particular, is something that the new Labour leader will need to address.
A third of the public say that they can trust the Conservatives with the economy (34%), compared with just over one in ten who say the same of Labour (13%).
Despite Labour claiming to be the party of public services — the public are almost as likely to trust the Conservatives with the NHS and schools as they are Labour.
Further, Labour (24%) are almost twice as likely to be seen as divided compared to the Conservative Party (13%), and it’s clear that Starmer will need to address these continued perceptions of disunity and economic incompetence if he’s to be a success.
PM vs LOTO
Personally, Starmer scores similarly to Johnson when it comes to a variety of leadership characteristics, besides charisma, just over one in ten (14%) of the public view him as being charismatic, compared to almost a third (28%) for the PM. While the importance of charisma can be debated, it is clear that Boris Johnson currently has a certain appeal that Starmer lacks.
The public are almost twice as like to say that Boris Johnson would make the best Prime Minister (46%) than those who say the same for Sir Kier Starmer (26%).
Issue importance ranks - public vs government
The public seem to be of the view that issues of health, seeing loved ones, and preventing COVID-19 related deaths are of higher importance to the public than they are to the UK government.
Almost two thirds of the public (62%) say that keeping the R rate low is of importance for the general public, compared to just over half (53%) who say that it is important for the UK Government.
Conversely, on issues such as extending the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020 and getting people back to work, the public say that these issues are of higher importance to the Government than they are to the general public.
Data from our Coronavirus Daily Tracker shows...
Individual approval ratings for Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, prominent cabinet ministers, the government’s scientific and medical advisers, and Leader of the Opposition, Sir Keir Starmer.
Organisation approval ratings for the NHS, supermarkets, the armed forces, the police, UK government, and Premier League football clubs.
A tracker of UK adults’ views on levels of support provided by the government for different groups, including self-employed, small businesses, transport workers, and the NHS.
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