Savanta most accurate polling company for London and West Midlands mayoralties

• With confirmed results announced, Savanta’s final polls for both the London and West Midlands mayoralties were the most accurate of any major polling company
• In London, Khan was re-elected with 43.8% of the vote, beating Hall on 32.7%. Savanta’s final poll forecast Khan on 42% and Hall on 32% – an average error among the two main candidates of just 1.25 points
• In the West Midlands, Parker was elected with 37.8% of the vote, narrowly beating Street on 37.5%. Savanta’s final poll forecast Parker on 41% and Street on 38% – an average error among the two main candidates of just 1.85 points

5 May 2024 – With the final results now announced, Savanta’s final polls for both the London and West Midlands mayoralty elections were, on average, the most accurate of any major polling company.

For the London mayoralty election, Sadiq Khan was re-elected with 43.8% of the vote, beating his main challenger Conservative candidate Susan Hall on 32.7%. Liberal Democrat candidate Rob Blackie received 5.8% vote share, Green candidate Zoe Garbett was on 5.8% and Reform UK’s Howard Cox on 3.1%.

Savanta’s final poll, for the Centre for London on 1 May, suggested that Khan would deliver 42% of the vote share, Hall on 32%, Blackie on 10%, Garbett on 8% and Cox on 3%. This produced an overall average error of just 2.4 percentage points, the closest of any of the final polls from major UK polling companies.

For the West Midlands mayoralty election, after a recount, Richard Parker was elected with 37.8% of the vote, beating the incumbent mayor Andy Street on 27.5%.

Savanta’s poll on 22 April suggested that Parker would win with 41% of the vote share, with Street on 38%. Savanta’s overall average error at this election, once the results of the other candidates are compared with Savanta’s polling, is just 2.3 percentage points.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta says:

“I am incredibly proud of everyone working at Savanta who helped deliver these results. Polling – just like politics – is a team sport, and there are many colleagues who should be proud of their role in making us the most accurate polling company in the major races we polled.”

“There are plenty of learnings for the whole industry, including Savanta, coming out of these results. Changes in electoral systems, low turnout and voter ID laws have made these elections fiendishly difficult to predict. Our work to build stronger relationships with journalists to better explain our work will be redoubled.”

“Generally, all pollsters had a good set of mayoral election polling, with average error by pollster quite low. This should help generate trust in the industry ahead of an all-important general election, likely later in 2024.”

Notes for editors

For further comment, please contact Richard Brooks on [email protected] or 07740858477.