Sunday Mirror Voting Intention and Political Poll April 2017

Polling on behalf of the Sunday Mirror on the General Election 2017, perceptions of party leaders and Voting Intention.

The Tory Party’s lead has increased in the last week since the Election announcement, with the party’s voting intention ratings now hitting a massive 50%, with Labour on 25%.  This is the first time since April 2002 that any UK political party has achieved 50%, and first time the Conservatives have achieved 50% since January 1991.

 

The gap between the Conservatives and Labour is reflected in 62% of the public saying that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election compared to 25% who say the same of Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May’s leadership score is higher than that of Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Paul Nuttall combined.

 

Half of 2015 UKIP voters (48%) now say that they would now vote Conservative, up from 31% last weekend, continuing the Conservatives’ squeeze on UKIP’s vote.

 

Even what ought to core regional demographics for Jeremy Corbyn say that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister: most voters in Scotland and the North of England say she would make the best Prime Minister (51% and 57% respectively) instead of Jeremy Corbyn (33% and 31%).

 

And the Election is widely seen as unwinnable for Labour under its current leadership: while six in ten (59%) overall agree, even 18-24 year olds are more likely to agree than disagree that the Party cannot win a General Election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader (41% v 26%).

 

1. Do you agree or disagree with Theresa May’s decision to call an early General Election on 8th June?

 

Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
55%	21%	24%

 

Base: All respondents (n=2,074)

 

1. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

 

Statement	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Theresa May is exploiting the weakness of the Labour Party by calling an early General Election	62%	18%	20%
The Labour Party cannot win a General Election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader	59%	18%	23%
Theresa May is right to call an early General Election because of Brexit	53%	25%	22%
Theresa May misled the country by previously stating that she would not call an early General Election	48%	34%	18%
The Conservatives would win a landslide in an early General Election	47%	19%	34%
Theresa May has the best interests of people like me at heart	38%	40%	22%

 

Base: All respondents (n=2,074)

 

• Three in five adults (59%) say that the Labour Party cannot win a General Election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader, including almost half (45%) of 2015 Labour voters.
• Similar proportions (55% v 53%) agree that Theresa May was right to call a General Election (per se) as say she was right to call one because of Brexit.
• Over 65s are the only age group more likely to agree than disagree that Theresa May has the best interests of people like them at heart, but they do so overwhelmingly(59% v 25%).  64% of them will also vote Conservative on June 8^th.

                                                      

1. Thinking about their time as Prime Minister, who of the following was a better Prime Minister?

 

Politician	%
Theresa May	56%
David Cameron	44%

 

Base: All respondents (n=2,074)

 

• Both Conservative and UKIP voters are more likely to say that Theresa May has been a better Prime Minister than David Cameron was (73% and 74% respectively).
• Conversely Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are more likely to say that David Cameron was a better Prime Minister (60% and 61% respectively).

 

1. Who of the following would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election?

 

Politician	%
Theresa May	62%
Jeremy Corbyn	25%
Tim Farron	10%
Paul Nuttall	4%

 

Base: All respondents (n=2,074)

 

• 18-24 year olds are the only age group not more likely to say that Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn. This group is split with two in five adults saying both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn would be the best Prime Minister (41% and 43% respectively).
• Those who say they will vote UKIP are significantly more likely to say that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister than Paul Nuttall (64% v 23%).

 

1. Which of the following are the most important issues to you in the upcoming election? Please select up to three.

 

	Top three
NHS	70%
Brexit	68%
The economy	54%
Immigration	42%
National Security	24%
Austerity	16%

 

Base: All respondents (n=2,074)

 

• For Labour voters the most important issue for them in the upcoming election is the NHS (85%), for Conservatives Brexit (79%) and for UKIP voters it’s immigration (83%).  Liberal Democrats say that Brexit is more important than the NHS in the upcoming election (82% v 75%).
• Immigration is as important an issue as austerity in the upcoming election for Labour voters (29% v 33%).

 

Voting intention

The Conservatives hold a 25 point lead over Labour. This is the first time that Savanta ComRes has ever recorded a 50% Voting Intention figure for any party. The last time this happened in a national poll was in 2002, after the General Election.

 

Conservatives              50%      (+4)

Lab                               25%      (NC)

Liberal Democrats       11%      (NC)

UKIP                             7%        (-2)

SNP                              4%        (NC)

Green                           3%        (-1)

Other                           1%        (-1)

 

Andrew Hawkins, ComRes Chairman commented on the results:  “While no political party could ever object to breaching the 50% barrier for the first time this century, this spectacular headline result masks a real danger for the Tories.  The fact that six in ten voters believe Labour cannot win under Corbyn’s leadership bring a huge threat of complacency among Tory voters who may be tempted to sit at home on June 8^th and let others bring about the result they expect.  That is a nice problem to have, but it is nonetheless a problem in an election which may well be marked by low turnout and thus bring about some unpredictable and possibly surprising individual constituency results.”

Date Published: 22/04/2017

Categories: Elections | GB | GE2017 | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Sunday Mirror

Methodology

Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between the 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the Savanta ComRes Voter Turnout Model.

1. Sunday-Mirror-Voting-Intention-and-Political-Poll-April-2017-Data-Tables 0.02 MB.