The Independent eve of election poll

Despite a narrowing of the lead over the election campaign the Conservatives still enjoy a 10 point lead over the Labour Party in ComRes’s final Voting Intention poll of the 2017 General Election campaign.

Voting intention

The Conservatives go into the General Election tomorrow with a 10 point lead over Labour.

Con 44% (-3)

Lab 34% (-1)

LD 9% (+1)

UKIP 5% (+1)

SNP 4% (NC)

Green 2% (+1)

Other 1% (NC)

(NB % ADD UP TO 99% DUE TO ROUNDING)

Using the ComRes ‘PM squeeze’, reallocating ‘don’t know’ voters on the basis of the Prime Ministerial preference, the Conservative lead rises to 12% (46% compared to Labour’s 34%).

Consistent with previous ComRes polling, fully half (50%) of 2015 UKIP voters say they will now vote Conservative. This equates to almost 2m votes, or around 6% points on the Conservative vote share.

The Liberal Democrats are losing voters to both major parties, with two fifths of their 2015 voters saying they will now either vote Labour (22%) or Conservative (19%).

Q. Please try and imagine how you would feel waking up this Friday to learn that either Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May had won the General Election. Which of these descriptions would best apply to each scenario? I would feel…

	If Theresa May wins	If Jeremy Corbyn wins
Relieved	51%	49%
Worried about Brexit negotiations	45%	55%
Optimistic about Britain’s future	51%	49%
Concerned about my family’s future	51%	49%
Worried about national security	45%	55%
Concerned that as a country we will be unable to pay for everything the new government wants to do	38%	62%
Terrified	48%	52%
Delighted	50%	50%
Safer than if the other main party leader was Prime Minister	54%	46%

Base: All respondents (n=2,051)

The public is split in its reaction to the prospect of either a Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn victory in tomorrow’s Election, with 51% saying they would be optimistic about Britain’s future if May wins, compared to 49% if Corbyn wins.
However, reactions to a Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn victory are polarised between age groups, with three quarters of those aged 18-24 saying they would be relieved if Corbyn won and the same proportion of those aged 65+ saying the same of a May victory (both 73%).
The public is more likely to be concerned about the country being able to pay for everything the new government wants to do if Jeremy Corbyn were to win tomorrow’s election than Theresa May (62% v 38%).
In contrast national security appears to be less of a concern than paying for political promises in relation to Jeremy Corbyn, although the public are more worried about security if Corbyn wins the Election instead of May (55% v 45%).

Q. Thinking about the upcoming election on June 8^th, for each of the following pairs of statements, please indicate which comes closest to your opinion.

Statement			Statement	Don’t know
There is a need for a new centre-ground political party in Britain	45%	37%	The existing parties provide a reasonable range of choice for voters	18%
Overall, Britain is going in the right direction	42%	43%	Overall, Britain is going in the wrong direction	15%
Jeremy Corbyn, not Theresa May, would make the best Prime Minister after the Election	39%	48%	Theresa May, not Jeremy Corbyn, would make the best Prime Minister after the Election	14%
I would expect to pay more tax if the Conservatives win the General Election than if Labour win it	37%	42%	I would expect to pay more tax if Labour win the General Election than if the Conservatives win it	22%
I would be worried if a Labour government had to rely on the Scottish National Party in a hung parliament	51%	31%	I think a Labour government could work well with the Scottish National Party in a hung parliament	18%

Base: All respondents (n=2,051)

The public are divided over where they think that Britain is going – similar proportions say that Britain is going in the right direction as say the wrong direction (42% v 43%), while 15% say they don’t know.
Younger adults aged 18-24 (who are more likely to vote for the Labour party) are far more likely to say that Britain is going in the wrong direction than the right direction (52% v 26%). Conversely, older adults aged 65+ (who tend to vote for the Conservative party) are more likely to say Britain is going in the right direction than in the wrong direction by 65% to 25%.

The public are more likely to think that Theresa May, not Jeremy Corbyn, would make the best Prime Minister (48% v 39%), 14% don’t know.
While Liberal Democrat voters are divided over who they think will make the best Prime Minister (42% say Jeremy Corbyn, while 37% say Theresa May), UKIP voters are clearer in their view that Theresa May would make the better PM (63% v 20%)
This result has narrowed slightly since last week: the proportion saying Corbyn will make a better PM has increased 5 points to 39%, up from 34% on 3 June, whereas the proportion who prefer Theresa May has remained constant (48% v 49%).
Those who did not vote in 2015 are more likely to think that Jeremy Corbyn would make the best PM after the election, as opposed to Theresa May (43% v 29%).

Reflecting the 2015 General Election campaign, the public are far more likely to say they would be worried if a Labour government had to rely on the Scottish National Party in a hung Parliament (51% v 31% who say they think a Labour Government could work well with them in a hung Parliament).
While most Labour voters (58%) think a Labour Government could work well with the SNP in a hung Parliamentm, a quarter would be worried if a Labour government had to rely on them (24%).

British adults are more likely to say there is a need for a new centre-ground political party in Britain than think the existing parties provide a reasonable range of choice for voters (46% v 37%).
Two-thirds of Liberal Democrats (the group most enthusiastically in agreement) say there is a need for a new centre-ground political party in Britain (67% v the 21% who say the existing parties provide a reasonable range of choice for voters).
While Conservative voters are more likely to say that the existing parties provide a reasonable range of choice for voters (51% v 35% who say there is a need for a new centre-ground political party), voters from every other party* are more likely to say there is a need for a new centre-ground political party in Britain instead (*small base size regarding some parties).
The idea of a new centre-ground political party does not cut through with 18-24 and 65+ year olds, the groups most polarised in their beliefs. However, the prospect of a new centre-ground party does appeal to the plurality of those aged 25-64 for example 53% of 35-44 year olds say this, compared to 28% who say the existing parties provide a reasonable range of choices for voters.

Date Published: 7th June 2017

Categories: Elections | GE2017 | Politics | Voting Intention

Client: The Independent

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,051 GB adults online between 5^th and 7^th June 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.