The Sun – poll of 2015 UKIP voters

A new ComRes poll for The Sun confirms the Conservative Party’s successful courtship of 2015 UKIP voters, with half (48%) of then now saying they will vote Conservative. Meanwhile UKIP are struggling to retain even a quarter of those who voted for them in 2015 (23%).

Theresa May and the Conservatives

 

• 2015 UKIP voters are split on whether they do (44%) or do not (41%) think Theresa May wants to leave the EU; with those intending to vote Conservative (59%) considerably more likely than those intending to vote UKIP (34%) to believe the Prime Minister does want to leave the European Union.
• 2015 UKIP voters are significantly more likely to say that they trust Theresa May than trust Paul Nuttall to deliver a successful Brexit (79% v 54%).
• Theresa May is the most trusted Party leader on almost all areas tested; importantly on the key issue of “improving the economy” 58% of 2015 UKIP voters say she is the best politician to do so, fully 48 points ahead of UKIP’s Paul Nuttall (10%) and a whopping 50 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn (8%).
• Theresa May’s Conservative Party has clear appeal among 2015 UKIP voters: three in five (59%) say they would be more likely to vote for the current Prime Minister than her predecessor, David Cameron (8%). Two thirds (66%) of 2015 UKIP voters say they prefer Theresa May’s policies to those of David Cameron (just 12% say the reverse), rising to three quarters (76%) of 2015 UKIP voters aged 65+, and four in five (81%) of those who are likely to vote Conservative on June 8^th.
• 2015 UKIP voters are more likely to say Theresa May (rather than David Cameron) has a good vision for Britain (54% vs. 5%), reflects their views on the EU (37% vs. 2%) and understands the interests of “people like me” (35% vs. 3%).

 

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour

 

• For 2015 UKIP voters Jeremy Corbyn – and to a lesser extent the Labour Party, are political kryptonite: 69% say that they don’t like Jeremy Corbyn or the Labour Party, with only 5% saying they like both.
• Jeremy Corbyn is the party leader most likely to be trusted to no extent to deliver a successful Brexit, even more so than the anti-Brexit Lib Dem leader Tim Farron (79% v 71% say ‘trust to no extent’).
• Ed Miliband’s appeal amongst 2015 UKIP voters appears to be much stronger than Jeremy Corbyn’s, with twice as many saying they prefer Miliband’s policies to Corbyn’s as the other way around (40% v 21%).
• In light of Saturday night’s terrorist attack, it is significant that a paltry 4% think Jeremy Corbyn would be best to keep Britain safe from terrorism, compared with 50% who say Theresa May (25% say Paul Nuttall and a further 20% don’t know)

 

UKIP’s future

 

• Despite Theresa May being trusted more than Paul Nuttall by 2015 UKIP voters to deliver a successful Brexit, 68% say UKIP still has a role to play in UK politics following Brexit. However, a significant minority (25%) say that UKIP no longer has a role in British politics in view of last year’s referendum result.
• The only policy area on which Paul Nuttall is seen as a better politician than Theresa May is immigration, where is he is more likely to be seen as the best politician to bring down migration numbers than she is (52% v 29%).
• The Conservative Party may not be a lifelong home for 2015 UKIP voters; a majority of 2015 UKIP voters say that neither Theresa May nor David Cameron understands their interests (54%) or reflects their views on the EU (51%), and two thirds (66%) say neither is an exciting politician.

 

UKIP’s past

• More than four in five (84%) 2015 UKIP voters say Nigel Farage made a better leader of the party than Paul Nuttall does (5%); this rises to nine in ten (90%) among UKIP voters intending to vote Conservative on June 8^th, but is also shared by more than three quarters (78%) of those intending to vote UKIP this time round.

 

The Campaign

 

• 2015 UKIP voters are not particularly impressed with either main parties’ campaigns so far, with roughly equal proportions saying the Labour and Conservative Parties have run the best campaign (23% v 20%)
• There are still plenty of 2015 UKIP votes up for grabs, while two thirds (64%) have “definitely” made their mind up about how they will vote on June 8^th, one in four (26%) saying they are “fairly clear about how they will vote but may still change their mind”, and one in ten (9%) saying they have no idea yet how they will vote.
• Those voting Conservative (79%) are more likely than those who say they will be voting UKIP (69%) to say they have definitely made up their mind.

Date Published: 5th June 2017

Categories: Elections | GE2017 | Politics | UK

Client: The Sun

Methodology

ComRes surveyed 527 British adults who voted for UKIP candidates at the last General Election, on 2 June 2017*. The survey was conducted online from a nationally representative sample. Results are representative of the demographic profile of UKIP voters at GE2015 by age and gender.

*Please note, fieldwork took place before the London Terror Attacks on Saturday 3^rd June 2017.

1. The-Sun_2015-UKIP-voters-poll_05062017_6547231465 0.02 MB.