Independent / Sunday Mirror June 2017 Voting Intention and Political Poll

The Prime Minister’s personal rating has turned negative for the first time in a Savanta ComRes poll since becoming Prime Minister, but the Conservative Party’s lead of 12 points is unchanged since last week.

Voting intention

Con 47% (+1)

Lab 35% (+1)

LD 8% (NC)

UKIP 4% (NC)

SNP 3% (-1)

Green 1% (-1)

Other 1% (NC)

(Change compared to last poll published 28 May)

The NHS, Brexit and national security appear to be the most important areas for the public at this election.

Q. Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of each of the following?

	Favourable	Unfavourable	Neither	Don’t know	NET Favourability score
Theresa May	39%	42%	16%	4%	-3 (-12)
The Conservative Party	37%	43%	16%	4%	-6 (+6)
The Labour Party	37%	42%	16%	4%	-5 (+12)
Jeremy Corbyn	32%	47%	15%	5%	-15 (+18)
The Green Party	28%	26%	38%	8%	+2
The Liberal Democrats	20%	39%	35%	7%	-19 (+8)
UKIP	19%	53%	23%	5%	-34 (-8)
Nicola Sturgeon	17%	54%	22%	7%	-37
Caroline Lucas	15%	23%	31%	31%	-8
Tim Farron	14%	38%	35%	13%	-24 (-9)
SNP	13%	51%	26%	10%	-38
Paul Nuttall	8%	45%	28%	19%	-37 (-5)

Base: All respondents (n=2,038). Brackets represent change since last tested (February 2017 and December 2016).

Theresa May’s ‘honeymoon’ as Prime Minister is surely over. In February she was the only party leader with a positive NET favourability score, but since then it has dropped 12 points to -3.
Despite an improvement in his favourability score (up 18 points since February), Jeremy Corbyn still lags behind Theresa May, with his NET score on -15 and hers on -3.

Q. Thinking about next week’s election on June 8^th, for each of the following pairs of statements, please indicate which comes closest to your opinion.

Statement			Statement	Don’t know
I have definitely decided who I will vote for next Thursday	77%	16%	I have not yet decided who I will vote for next Thursday	7%
Theresa May and the Conservative Party are likely to win the General Election	57%	19%	Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are likely to win the General Election	24%
Theresa May and the Conservative Party have the best policies for people like me and my family	38%	44%	Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party have the best policies for people like me and my family	18%
Jeremy Corbyn, not Theresa May, would make the best Prime Minister after the election	34%	49%	Theresa May, not Jeremy Corbyn, would make the best Prime Minister after the election	17%
I prefer a parliament in which parties have to work together in government	28%	59%	I prefer a parliament in which one party has an overall majority	13%

Base: All respondents (n=2,038)

Despite a politically very busy week, there has been minimal change in the public’s perceptions of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn since last weekend.
Theresa May still leads Jeremy Corbyn as the best Prime Minister after the election (49% v 34%), but lags behind on whose policies are best for ‘people like me and my family’ (38% v 44%).
There has been an increase in the proportion who have definitely decided who they will vote for on June 8^th (from 70% last week to 77% this week).
Although most (57%) expect Theresa May and the Conservatives to win the election, a significant minority (24%) don’t know.

Q. Which of the following outcomes are the most important to you for the upcoming election on June 8^th?

Statement	%
Ensuring that the next government delivers improvements to the NHS	52%
Ensuring Britain has a strong team for the Brexit negotiations	47%
Having a government that will keep Britain secure from terrorism	42%
Having a government that best looks after the interests of hard working families	33%
Ensuring that the most vulnerable in society are looked after well	29%
Reducing the wealth gap between the rich and poor	28%
Having a Prime Minister who can represent Britain on the world stage	27%
Having a government that promises to protect people’s assets as they need more social care later in life	14%

Base: All respondents (n=2,038)

Approaching three in four (72%) Conservative voters say ensuring Britain has a strong team for Brexit negotiations is one of the most important outcomes for them following the election, almost three times the proportion of Labour voters (26%) who say the same.
For Labour voters, the NHS is the most important outcome; two thirds (68%) say ensuring that the next government delivers improvements to the NHS is one of the most important outcomes for them following the election, compared to two in five (38%) Conservative voters who say the same.
For the majority (52%) of undecideds, ensuring that the next government delivers improvements to the NHS is also one of the most important outcomes. Two in five (42%) undecided say having a government that will keep Britain secure from terrorism, the same proportion as those who have definitely decided who they are voting for.
Voters who have definitely decided who they are voting for are more likely than undecided voters to say that one of the most important outcomes of the election for them is having a Prime Minister who can represent Britain on the world stage (30% v 20%).
Half (50%) of voters aged 65+ list having a government that will keep Britain secure from terrorism as important, yet just three in ten (31%) of those aged 18-24 say the same. This older age group are also more likely to list having a Prime Minister who can represent Britain on the world stage as important, two in five (39%) state this, twice the proportion of those aged 18-24 (20%).
Only 21% of those aged over 65 say that having a government that promises to protect people’s assets as they need more social care in later life is in their top three most important outcomes of the election. Despite criticism of the Conservatives’ social care funding reforms, this does not appear to correlate with the priorities of this group, who are far more focused on Brexit negotiations and the NHS (61% and 54%).

Date Published: 3rd June 2017

Categories: Elections | GE2017 | Politics | Voting Intention

Client: Independent / Sunday Mirror

Methodology

Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,038 GB adults online between 31^st May and 2^nd June 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the Savanta ComRes Voter Turnout Model. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.