The latest Savanta polling ahead of the 2021 Canadian Federal Election
Singh’s personal net favorability rating of +16%, up 2pts from last week, is a substantial 21pts ahead of the next leader (O’Toole, -5%)
New polling shows the Liberals ahead of their rivals as the party Canadians view as best placed to lead the country’s COVID recovery. Nearly a third of Canadians picked the Liberals (29%), ahead of the Conservatives (27%) and NDP (13%).
Despite this, both Trudeau and the Liberal’s net favorability rating have fallen since our polling last week. The Prime Minister is down 3pts to -11%, with the Liberals also down 3pts to -8%
While Trudeau may take some comfort in the fact that O’Toole and the Conservatives have also lost ground since last week, with O’Toole and his party both down 1pt to -5% and -2% respectively, the Prime Minster may have cause for concern in the continued popularity of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP.
Singh’s personal net favorability rating of +16%, up 2pts from last week, is a substantial 21pts ahead of the next leader (O’Toole, -5%). Likewise, his New Democratic Party’s net favorability of +11% is 13pts higher than the Conservatives (-2%), and 19pts higher than the Liberals (-8%).
And with Singh and the NDP’s favorability even higher in British Columbia (+25%) and Ontario (+23%), where many feel NDP gains in Vancouver and Toronto could eat into the Liberal’s vote share, Trudeau will hope that a virtual tie in trustworthiness to keep campaign promises (24% for Singh, 23% for Trudeau) will see him through at the ballot box.
Elsewhere in the poll, O’Toole’s pledges to upgrade Canada’s innovation policies seem to have resonated with Canadians as the Conservatives lead as the party viewed most likely to foster innovation in Canada (35%), ahead of the Liberals (33%) and NDP (21%).
Lastly a majority of Canadians (54%) would support the implementation of a national Pharmacare program that covered most drug costs even if it request subsequent tax increases to offset costs.
Commenting on the findings, Jeremy Mullin, VP of Public Affairs at Savanta Americas says,
As we head into the final days of the election campaign, the two-way race between the Conservatives and the Liberals is a dead heat, with a minority outcome looking imminent. The Conservatives stand to gain if the somewhat unpopular decision to call an early during a pandemic translates into actual votes against the Liberals.
However, despite trailing both Jagmeet Singh and Erin O’Toole in net favorability, Justin Trudeau is still viewed on par with Singh and O’Toole in terms of likelihood to maintain campaign promises, while the Liberals are viewed as the party best positioned to lead Canada’s COVID recovery, with their COVID response generally viewed positively.
At this stage, the cards are on the table, so to speak, and the party that ultimately comes out ahead will likely be the one with the superior ground game in turning out voters, especially in tight races in battleground Ontario.