Sunday Mirror / Independent VI and political poll May 2017

Conservatives lead by 12 points despite signs of growing support for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, including on social care.

Voting Intention

Con 46% (-2)

Lab 34% (+4)

LD 8% (-2)

UKIP 5% (NC)

SNP 4% (NC)

Green 2% (-1)

Other 1% (-1)

The Conservatives enjoy a 12 point lead over Labour, down from 18 points on 13^th May.

Labour and the Conservatives are continuing to squeeze the vote share of smaller parties. Only half of 2015 Lib Dem voters (51%) say they will vote for the Party. A fifth of 2015 Lib Dems (18%) say they will vote Conservative and a quarter (27%) say they will vote Labour. The drain of 2015 UKIP voters to the Conservative Party continues with 54% of them saying they will now vote Conservative.

In view of the large difference in perceptions between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, we have also run a second set of voting intention figures reallocating those who said they were undecided who to vote for, but who say they will vote, by who they think will make the best Prime Minister. When this preference for Prime Minister between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn is taken into account, the Conservatives vote share rises to 48% and Labour’s falls to 33% – a Conservative lead of 15 points.

Labour leads the Conservatives among 18-24s by 62% to 26% and is ahead among all age groups up to 44 years; however the Conservatives are ahead of Labour among older age groups and by a massive 67% to 17% among those aged 65+.
The Conservatives continue to lead among all Social Grades including C2s and DEs among whom their lead is 8 points and 7 points respectively.
One in ten 2015 Labour voters (10%) now intends to vote Conservative.

Statement	Theresa May	Jeremy Corbyn	Tim Farron	Paul Nuttall	Nicola Sturgeon	Don’t know
Best to represent Britain on the world stage	49% (NC)	21% (+4)	3% (-1)	2% (NC)	2% (NC)	23% (-2)
Most likely to deliver improvements to the NHS	25% (-3)	42% (+4)	5% (NC)	2% (NC)	2% (-1)	26% (+2)
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit	48% (-2)	18% (+3)	4% (-1)	3% (NC)	2% (NC)	25% (+1)
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism	41% (-6)	15% (+1)	2% (-1)	5% (+1)	1% (NC)	35% (+5)
Best to look after the interests of hard working families	28% (-4)	41% (+6)	4% (-1)	3% (NC)	2% (-1)	23% (+1)
Most likely to raise school standards	31% (-4)	30% (+2)	4% (-2)	2% (NC)	2% (NC)	30% (+4)
Most likely to reduce net migration to the UK	34% (-5)	11% (+2)	2% (-1)	21% (+3)	1% (NC)	31% (+1)
Most likely to protect the interests of older people who are becoming more dependent on the social care system	20%	42%	4%	2%	2%	29%

Base: All respondents (n=2,024) Nicola Sturgeon tested in Scotland only

Voters are still more likely to say that Theresa May best fits the majority of the measures tested but her ratings have fallen, and Jeremy Corbyn’s have risen, on almost every measure tracked.
- Jeremy Corbyn leads on several measures: “most likely to deliver improvements to the NHS” (41% Corbyn vs 25% May) and being “best to look after the interests of hard working families” 41% Corbyn vs 28% May now, compared to 35% Corbyn vs 32% May a fortnight ago.
- Importantly for the Conservatives, more than twice as many voters think Jeremy Corbyn is ‘most likely to protect the interests of older people who are becoming more dependent on the social care system’ (43% to 20%). However, while almost every age groups agrees with this, the older the voter, the more likely they are to think Theresa May is best on this measure.
Following the tragic events in Manchester earlier in the week, May is still more likely than Corbyn to be seen as the leader most likely to keep Britain safe from Terrorism (42% vs 16%) – though associations with this for Theresa May have declined from 47% two weeks ago.
Voters are more likely to consider Corbyn than May best to look after the interest of hard working families (41% vs 28%). This is consistent among those who are working full or part time (43% vs 24%).

For each of these pairs of statements, which one comes closest to your view?

Statement			Statement	Don’t know
Theresa May and the Conservative Party have the best policies for people like me and my family	37%	41%	Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party have the best policies for people like me and my family	21%
I will decide my vote more on the basis of leadership of a political party than its policies	20%	64%	I will decide my vote more on the basis of a political party’s policies than its leadership	15%
I have definitely made up my mind who I will vote for on June 8th	70%	21%	I have not yet made up my mind who I will vote for on June 8th	9%
Diane Abbott would make a better Home Secretary than Amber Rudd	13%	42%	Amber Rudd would make a better Home Secretary than Diane Abbott	45%
Jeremy Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Theresa May	30%	50%	Theresa May would make a better Prime Minster than Jeremy Corbyn	20%

Base: All respondents (n=2,024)

Although the public are more likely to believe that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party have “the best policies for people like me and my family” than Theresa May and the Conservatives (42% v 37%), this does not translate into who the public think would make a better Prime Minister. 51% of the public say that Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn, compared to 30% who say they opposite.
70% of the public say they have definitely made up their mind who they will vote for on June 8^th, with older voters generally being more settled in their decision. One in five Lib Dem voters (21%) and four in ten UKIP voters (39%) have not yet definitely decided.
Men are more likely than women to say that Theresa May and the Conservative Party have the best policies ‘for people like me and my family’ (41% v 34%). Once again, the nation appears divided between those under 44 who are more likely to say that Jeremy Corbyn and Labour have the best policies, and older voters, a majority of whom take the opposite view.
Alarmingly perhaps for Theresa May, among C1s, C2s and DEs more think Jeremy Corbyn and Labour than think the Conservatives have the best policies.

Date Published: 27th May 2017

Categories: Elections | GE2017 | Politics | Voting Intention

Client: Sunday Mirror / Independent

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,024 GB adults online between 24^th and 26^th May 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.