Sunday Mirror / Independent November 2016 Political Poll

Political poll on Brexit, the Autumn Statement and Donald Trump

A majority of the British public want an end to austerity: 53% say Theresa May should increase public spending in the next few years, while only 23% say spending should be cut – according to a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and The Independent.

The poll also found that in the immediate aftermath of the US election, British adults express generally negative views of Donald Trump.

Autumn Statement

Ahead of the Autumn statement, May & Hammond are seen as more trusted than both Corbyn & McDonnell and Cameron & Osborne.

· More than half of British adults trust Theresa May & Philip Hammond more than Jeremy Corbyn & John McDonnell to run the country’s economy (55% v 22% who report the opposite). Britons are also more likely to trust May & Hammond over David Cameron & George Osborne to run the country’s economy (48% v 18%).

· More than half of Britons say that the government should delay major spending decisions until after the UK has agreed the terms of leaving the European Union, while three in ten think the government should go ahead with these decisions (53% v 30%).

· The majority of Britons say that the government should prioritise increasing public spending over the next few years rather than cutting it (53% v 23%).

Brexit

British adults are divided on the government’s priorities but most agree that they should follow the referendum result.

· Over half of Britons say that MPs should follow the referendum result and vote for the UK to leave the EU when they vote on it in Parliament, whilst three in ten state that MPs should vote in accordance with their own judgement (57% v 30%).

· Briton’s are divided regarding whether the government should prioritise maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU or prioritise reducing immigration from the EU (42% v 43%).

US elections

In the immediate aftermath of the US election, British adults express generally negative views of Donald Trump.

· Britons are more likely to say that Donald Trump will be a bad president than a good one (53% v 15%).

· Two in five (40%) Britons say that Donald Trump as President will be bad for the UK’s relationship with the USA, compared to 29% who think that he will be good for the relationship.

· Britons are more likely to say that Donald Trump as President will make it easier for the UK to get a favourable trade deal with the US than say he will make it harder (36% v 32%).

· Two thirds of British adults say that Donald Trump as President makes the world a more dangerous place, whilst one in ten say that he makes the world a safer place (66% v 10%).

· Donald Trump’s victory is more likely to be seen as setting a dangerous precedent for future elections than being a welcome disruption to ‘politics as usual’ (58% v 26%).

Full findings

Q1. For each of the following pairs of statements, which one do you agree with most?

	%	%
I trust Theresa May & Philip Hammond more than Jeremy Corbyn & John McDonnell to run the country’s economy	55% (45%)*	22% (29%)*	I trust Jeremy Corbyn & John McDonnell more than Theresa May & Philip Hammond to run the country’s economy
I trust Theresa May & Philip Hammond more than David Cameron & George Osborne to run the country’s economy	48%	18%	I trust David Cameron & George Osborne more than Theresa May & Philip Hammond to run the country’s economy
The government should delay major spending decisions until after the UK has agreed the terms of leaving the European Union	53%	30%	The government should go ahead with major spending decisions
The government should prioritise increasing public spending over the next few years	53%	23%	The government should prioritise cutting public spending over the next few years
MPs should follow the referendum result and vote for the UK to leave the EU when they vote on it in Parliament	57%	30%	MPs should vote in accordance with their own judgement when they vote on the UK leaving the EU in Parliament
The government should prioritise maintaining access to the single market so Britain can have free trade with the EU, even if that means continued immigration from the EU	42%	43%	The government should prioritise reducing immigration from the EU, even if that means not having access to the single market and free trade with the EU

Base: GB adults (n=2038). *Numbers in brackets are Cameron and Osborne vs Corbyn and McDonnell from March 2016 with same question wording (n=2059).

· Three in ten of those who voted for Labour in 2015 say that they trust Theresa May & Philip Hammond more than Jeremy Corbyn & John McDonnell to run the country’s economy (30%).

· Britons in the oldest age group (65+) are particularly likely to say that MPs should follow the referendum result and vote for the UK to leave the EU when they vote on it in Parliament (74%), whereas only 35% of 18-24 year-olds report likewise.

· Those who voted for Labour in 2015 are split when it comes to whether MPs should follow the referendum result and vote for the UK to leave the EU when they vote on it in Parliament (46%) or whether should vote in accordance with their own judgement (41%).

· More than four in five (83%) of those who voted for UKIP in 2015 say that the government should prioritise reducing immigration from the EU, even if that means not having access to the single market and free trade with the EU; just 7% say the opposite.

· A slim majority of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2015 say that the government should prioritise reducing immigration from the EU, even if that means not having access to the single market and free trade with the EU (52%).

Q2. Following Donald Trump’s election as US President, for each of the following pairs of statements, which do you agree with most about his Presidency?

	%	%
Donald Trump will be a good President	15%	53%	Donald Trump will be a bad President
Donald Trump as President will be good for the UK’s relationship with the USA	29%	40%	Donald Trump as President will be bad for the UK’s relationship with the USA
Donald Trump as President will make it easier for the UK to get a favourable trade deal with the US	36%	32%	Donald Trump as President will make it harder for the UK to get a favourable trade deal with the US
Donald Trump as President makes the world a safer place	10%	66%	Donald Trump as President makes the world a more dangerous place
Donald Trump’s victory is a welcome disruption to ‘politics as usual’	26%	58%	Donald Trump’s victory sets a dangerous precedent for future elections

Base: GB adults (n=2038)

· Those who voted for UKIP in 2015 are most favourable towards President-elect Trump, with two in five (40%) saying he will be a good president.

· Only one in ten women say that Trump will be a good president, men are twice as likely to report this perception (10% v 20%).

· Britons in the youngest age group (18-24) are particularly likely to say that Donald Trump as President makes the world a more dangerous place (75%).

Date Published: 12th November 2016

Categories: Voting Intention

Client: Sunday Mirror / Independent

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,038 GB adults online on 9 and 10 November 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables on the ComRes website.