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Political Poll for The Independent

Voting intention and political attitudes poll conducted for The Independent published 2 October 2010.

Date Published: 01 Oct 2010

Categories: Energy | Media | Politics | Public and communities | Technology & Telecoms | UK


Latest voting intention:
Con       39% (+2)

Lab        36% (+1)

LD          15% (-)

Others   10% (-3)

The Martin Baxter calculator shows Conservatives short 24 of a majority


Key points about VI:

·         Just 62% of people who voted Lib Dem in May would vote Lib Dem now compared with 94% each for Labour and Tories

·         Labour are ahead of the Tories for all age groups under 55, and the Tories are ahead for people aged 55+

·         46% of social group DE would vote Labour, compared to 29% Conservative...among all other social groups the Tories lead Labour


Additional questions:


Ed Miliband will be too heavily influenced by the trade unions when framing Labour's policies
Agree 34%

Disagree 24%

Don’t know 42%

·         Conservative voters are far more likely than any other group to agree, 57%, compared with 31% of LDs and only 18% of Labour voters

Labour needs to spell out more clearly where it would cut public spending to bring down the deficit
Agree 82%

Disagree 5%

Don’t know 14%

·         Clearly huge agreement across all parties including 83% of Labour voters

·         There is a correlation by age – the older the respondent the more likely to agree

Ed Miliband was a good choice of Labour leader
Agree 27%

Disagree 26%

Don’t know 47%

·         Labour voters are notable for their lack of enthusiasm – only 50% agree, 14% disagree and 36% don’t know

·         There is little variance by any demographic group

Ed Miliband becoming Labour leader makes little difference to the political direction of the party
Agree 32%

Disagree 37%

Don’t know 30%

·         The country is split into thirds with little variation by demographic type

·         Only Labour voters show any opinion – 54% disagree and 25% agree

David Miliband would have made a better Labour leader than Ed Miliband

Agree 29%

Disagree 17%

Don’t know 54%

·         While many people don’t offer an opinion, among even Labour voters more agree than disagree (29% to 26%)

·         There is no demographic group where more people agree than disagree


The Coalition Government is right to start cutting public spending this year to bring down the deficit rather than waiting until next year to do so
Agree 57%

Disagree 26%

Don’t know 17%

·         There is widespread agreement among all demographic groups, the least enthusiastic being DEs but even here 49% agree and 32% disagree

·         There is massive division in political outlook though: 91% of Tories and 68% of LDs agree, while only 32% of Labour voters agree and 54% disagree

·         Among people who fail to offer a voting intention 40% agree and 16% disagree


The Coalition Government is risking the economic recovery by cutting too far, too fast
Agree 45%

Disagree 36%

Don’t know 19%

·         There is clearly much nervousness generally on this issue

·         The most nervous group are DEs but not profoundly so: among this group 51% agree and 28% disagree

·         Perhaps unsurprisingly, only 14% of Tory voters agree (71% disagree), compared with 38% of LDs (35% disagree) and a whopping 82% of Labour voters (10% disagree)

David Cameron is proving a good prime minister
Agree 44%

Disagree 32%

Don’t know 25%

·         Cameron is most popular among ABs and older age groups

·         89% of Tories and 52% of LDs agree, compared with just 10% of Labour voters

·         Among people who decline to say how they would vote, 24% agree and 17% disagree


I am satisfied with the performance of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition
Agree 44%

Disagree 36%

Don’t know 20%

·         Among social groups agreement ranges from 55% of ABs to 35% of DEs

·         Disagreement is strongest in Scotland where 29% agree but 53% disagree...this is the mirror view of people in the south east 52% of whom agree and 30% disagree

·         86% of Tories agree as do 62% of LDs, while only10% of Labour voters agree

·         However, only 48% of 2010 LD voters agree and 36% disagree

Nick Clegg is proving a good deputy prime minister

Agree 45%

Disagree 32%

Don’t know 23%

·         There is modest variation among social groups although again ABs are most in agreement (55%) while DEs are the least (38%)

·         Again, Scots are least positive

·         74% of Tories agree, as do only 19%.  HOWEVER only 72% of LD voters agree – so fewer LDs agree than Tories!

·         This is mirrored among those who voted LD in May – 57% agree and 24% disagree, compared with 71% who voted Tory in May who agree and 11% who disagree

·         It is worth noting too therefore that while 52% of LDs think that DC is doing a good job, 74% of Tories think NC is doing a good job as his deputy.

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