October EU Referendum Poll

Poll for the Daily Mail on the EU referendum

“REMAIN” LEADS BY 19 POINTS IN EU REFERENDUM POLL

As the EU referendum dominates many conversations at the Conservative conference, a new ComRes poll for the Daily Mail shows that the “Remain” side has a 19 point lead over those saying “Leave” on the EU referendum question. This is the first telephone poll to ask the official referendum question and shows that fewer people saying “don’t know” since July when ComRes last asked the In – Out question.

There is some division among Conservative supporters with a third (35%) saying they would vote to Leave the EU while 56% say they would vote to Remain. ComRes also applied its new Voter Turnout Model to the results which takes in respondents’ likelihood to vote based on demographics factors such as age and social class. This suggests that if turnout patterns at the referendum were similar to those at the General Election, 35% would vote to leave, compared to 58% who would vote to stay.

The poll also reveals that the aspect of EU renegotiation Britons say is most important to them is restricting the benefits that EU migrants entering the UK can receive. Eight in ten (82%) Britons say this is important, including 55% who say “very important”. Around three in four Britons say limiting the number of people moving to the UK from the EU is important, as well as giving the UK the option to stay out of future EU treaties (78% both).

Full results:

Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

	All GB adults	ComRes Voter Turnout Model
Remain	55% (+4)	58%
Leave	36% (+3)	35%
Don’t know	8% (-8)	7%

 

 

Base: GB adults (n=1,009). Changes in brackets are from June 2015 when the question asked was “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU), how would you vote? ‘Stay in, Leave, Don’t know’.

 

Q: As you may know, David Cameron is currently in the middle of negotiations with the European Union about the UK’s role in the EU. How important, if at all, do you think it is that David Cameron secures each of the following as part of his negotiation with the EU? 

	NET: Important	Very important	Fairly important	Not very important	Not at all important	Don’t know
Limits on the number of people moving to the UK from the EU	78%	54%	24%	11%	9%	2%
Restricting the benefits that EU migrants entering the UK can receive	82%	55%	27%	10%	6%	2%
Reducing regulation for businesses	76%	38%	39%	12%	7%	4%
Giving the UK the option to stay out of any future treaties between EU countries	78%	43%	35%	11%	7%	4%

Base: GB adults (n=1,009)

Date Published: 6th October 2015

Categories: Elections | EU Referendum | GB | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Daily Mail

Methodology

Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 1,009 GB adults by telephone between 26th and 28th September 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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