ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Interviews were carried out online between the 18th and 26thSeptember 2014. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
Date Published: 28 Sep 2014
Description
COMRES / ITV NEWS POLL OF MARGINAL CONSTITUENCIES SHOWS 11 POINT LABOUR LEAD
A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats.
Labour currently has 41% of the vote in these battleground constituencies, an increase of five points since June, with the Conservatives on 30%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and UKIP on 17% (up from 3% in 2010).
Conservative: 30% (-1)
Labour: 41% (+5)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 17% (n/c)
Other: 6% (-2)
Figures in brackets show changes since June
Despite Labour’s large lead in these battleground seats, more people say they would rather have David Cameron as Prime Minister than Ed Miliband (46%), 33% say they would rather Ed Miliband.
Six in ten (59%) people say that Ed Miliband puts them off voting for Labour, this includes two in five (38%) people that say they will vote for Labour.
David Cameron’s premiership appears divisive in the marginals, with as many saying he has been a good Prime Minister (41%) as saying he has been bad (43%). While he receives the backing of his party (84% of Conservatives say he has been a good PM) and the Liberal Democrats (55%), 56% of UKIP voters say he has been a bad Prime Minister as do 67% of Labour voters.
Despite Boris Johnson’s popularity, more residents in marginal constituencies think he would make a bad Prime Minister (43%) than think he would be good (32%).
In the event of a Coalition after the next election, the Liberal Democrats are preferred to UKIP as the junior partner by 42%, compared to 35% who would rather see UKIP in a Coalition. Conservatives appear split on the choice of a Coalition partner, with 47% preferring the Liberal Democrats and 40% in favour of UKIP.
Half (51%) of the public in the 40 marginal seats say they would never vote for UKIP, even if they could win in their constituency. A third (33%) say they would consider voting UKIP at next year’s General Election.
Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling, ComRes said: “These are the seats where the General Election next year will be won and lost and Labour have opened up a convincing lead. However, despite the polls pointing to a Labour victory, voters in the marginals prefer David Cameron as a Prime Minister to Ed Miliband and the Conservatives will be hoping that is enough to swing enough people back round to back them when it comes to the ballot in May 2015.”
FULL RESULTS
Q. For each of the following pairs of statements, please state which comes closest to your opinion.
|
Option 1 |
Don’t know |
Option 2 |
||
|
David Cameron has been a good Prime Minister |
41% |
16% |
43% |
David Cameron has been a bad Prime Minister |
|
Ed Miliband puts me off voting for Labour |
59% |
23% |
18% |
Ed Miliband encourages me to vote for Labour |
|
Boris Johnson would make a good Prime Minister |
32% |
24% |
43% |
Boris Johnson would make a bad Prime Minister |
|
I’d rather have David Cameron than Ed Miliband as Prime Minister |
46% |
21% |
33% |
I’d rather have Ed Miliband than David Cameron as Prime Minister |
|
I’d rather have a Conservative government than a Labour government |
37% |
19% |
44% |
I’d rather have a Labour government than a Conservative government |
|
If there is another Coalition after the next election, I’d prefer the Liberal Democrats to be in government as the junior partner |
42% |
24% |
35% |
If there is another Coalition after the next election, I’d prefer UKIP to be in government as the junior partner |
|
I would consider voting UKIP at the General Election next year |
33% |
16% |
51% |
I’d never consider voting UKIP |
|
I’d vote for UKIP if I thought they could win in my constituency |
30% |
19% |
51% |
I’d never vote for UKIP, even if they could win in my constituency |
(Base: 1,000 adults in marginal constituencies)
Methodology Note:
ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Interviews were carried out online between the 18th and 26th September 2014. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
For more information contact Tom Mludzinski, 0788 049 3597