ITV News / Daily Mail EU Referendum Poll May 2016

Poll of 1,000 GB adults on the EU referendum on behalf of ITV News and the Daily Mail.

Remain stays ahead while economy jumps in importance

There has been a huge rise in the importance of the economy on the EU referendum debate. The proportion of Britons saying that the economy is one of the three most important factors influencing their decision on how to vote has increased 17 points since February (from 38% to 55%), seeing it jump from the third to first on the list of most important issues.

Despite this suggesting the Government’s “project fear” campaigning on the economy has cut through with voters, the public appears not to have bought David Cameron’s warning that leaving the EU could risk war. Although more people think a major war in Europe would be more likely if Britain left the EU (11%) than if it remained (3%), the vast majority of people (85%) say it would make no difference.

Overall, the Remain campaign retains its lead over Leave. After modelling for turnout, 52% say they would vote for Remain, compared to 41% who say they would vote Leave (slightly up from last month), with 7% saying they don’t know. In a vote, this would see Remain defeat Leave 57% to 43%.

Around half of the public think that Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey joining the EU would make it less secure (47%) and worse off (48%).

Three in five Britons (62%) think that the three million people coming into the UK from the EU over the next 14 years used by Treasury to project the economic impact of Brexit is “too high” a level of immigration. Seven in ten (69%) think it would increase pressure on the NHS and other public services compared to just 15% who think it would help better fund and staff the NHS and other public services.

Findings in Detail

Q:If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

	All GB adults (turnout weighted)	Those likely to vote & expressing a voting intention
Remain	52% (-1)	57% (-1)
Leave	41% (+3)	43% (+1)
Don’t Know	7% (-2)	–

Base: GB adults (n=1,000). Changes are from the turnout weighted results from the last ComRes telephone poll for Daily Mail / ITV News (16-19 April). Those likely to vote & expressing a voting intention weighted (n=838).

Although Remain retains its lead overall, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of people saying they will vote to Leave (41%).
Following a trend seen in recent months, a definitive trend has emerged that women are significantly more likely than men to say they would vote to Remain in the EU. At 15 points, the Remain lead amongst women is twice as large as it is among men (seven points – 51% to 44%).
As has been throughout the year, likelihood to vote continues to have little benefit for the Leave side, with its lead amongst older people being cancelled out by a large lead for Remain among the affluent AB social grades (the two groups with highest turnout levels).

Date Published: 19th May 2016

Categories: Elections | EU Referendum | GB | Politics | Voting Intention

Client: ITV News / Daily Mail

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,000 British adults aged 18+ from 14^th-17^th May 2016. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults aged 18+. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.