Independent / Sunday Mirror May 2017 Voting Intention and political poll

The Conservative Party’s lead over Labour is down from 25% points to 18% points, but Theresa May continues to outperforms Jeremy Corbyn (by some distance) on most policy areas tested.

Voting intention

The Conservatives enjoy an 18 point lead over Labour:

Con 48% (-2)

Lab 30% (+5)

LD 10% (-2)

UKIP 5% (-2)

SNP 4% (NC)

Green 3% (NC)

Other 1% (NC)

(comparison with Sunday Mirror poll published 23 April 2017)

The Conservative Party’s squeeze on UKIP continues with 51% of 2015 UKIP voters saying they will now vote Conservative.
The Conservatives lead Labour across all social grades including by 46% to 32% among DEs. The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%). These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.

Q. Please indicate which one party leader who, in your view, best fits each of the following descriptions:

Statement	Theresa May	Jeremy Corbyn	Tim Farron	Paul Nuttall	Nicola Sturgeon	Don’t know
Best to represent Britain on the world stage	49%	17%	4%	2%	2%	25%
Most likely to deliver improvements to the NHS	28%	38%	5%	2%	3%	24%
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit	50%	15%	5%	3%	2%	24%
The one I’d most want to be stranded on a desert island with	26%	19%	8%	3%	3%	41%
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism	47%	14%	3%	4%	1%	30%
Best to look after the interests of hard working families	32%	35%	5%	3%	3%	22%
Most likely to raise school standards	35%	28%	6%	2%	2%	26%
Most likely to reduce net migration to the UK	39%	9%	3%	18%	1%	30%

Base: All respondents (n=2,007) Nicola Sturgeon tested in Scotland only

Voters are more likely to say that Theresa May best fits the majority of descriptions tested, with the exception of being most likely to deliver improvements to the NHS, for which Jeremy Corbyn is more likely to be seen as the best fit (38% vs 28% Theresa May).
Voters are more split as to which party leader is best to look after the interests of hard working families (32% May vs 35% Corbyn).
While 92% of Conservative voters say that Theresa May is best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit, just 44% of Labour voters same about Corbyn. One in five Labour voters (19%) say that May is best to lead Britain’s Brexit negotiations.
A similar trend is apparent with the leader seen to be most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism, with one in five Labour voters (20%) saying Theresa May is best suited for this.

Q. For each of these pairs of statements, which one comes closest to your view?

Statement	%	%	Statement
I will vote for the party which I think is best for Britain	87%	13%	I will consider voting for a party I don’t usually support to stop one party winning too large a majority
Theresa May and the Conservative Party are likely to win the General Election	86%	14%	Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are likely to win the General Election
I have definitely made up my mind who I will vote for on June 8th	68%	32%	I have not yet made up my mind who I will vote for on June 8th
I would expect to pay more tax if the Conservatives win the General Election than if Labour win it	53%	47%	I would expect to pay more tax if Labour win the General Election than if the Conservatives win it
I believe Theresa May when she says she wants to try and help people who are ‘just about managing’	47%	53%	I do not believe Theresa May when she says she wants to try and help people who are ‘just about managing’

Base: All respondents (n=2,007)

Counter-intuitively perhaps, people are slightly more likely to say that they expect to pay more tax if the Conservatives win the General Election as opposed to if the Labour Party won (53% v 47%).
A Conservative victory on June 8^th is widely anticipated, with 86% of British adults saying so when forced to choose between that and a Labour victory – this figure includes 71% of Labour voters.
Although a third of the public (32%) say they have not yet made their minds up about who they will vote for on June 8^th, the most certain group about their vote are those aged 65+. The over 65s are the most likely to turn out to vote and to vote Conservative (66% of this group say this will vote Conservative).
There is little evidence to suggest intent to vote tactically, with 87% of British adults saying that they will vote for the party which they think is best for Britain (as opposed to 13% who will consider voting for another Party to stop one party getting too large a majority).

Date Published: 13th May 2017

Categories: Elections | GE2017 | Politics | Voting Intention

Client: Independent / Sunday Mirror

Methodology

Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,007 GB adults online between 10^th and 12^th May 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the Savanta ComRes Voter Turnout Model. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.