Polling on whether UK adults would vote to re-join the EU or stay out, and whether they support or oppose a referendum on the question within the next 5 years.
Over half would now vote to re-join the EU – Savanta ComRes
- Headline EU Membership VI: Become a member 53% (+4); Not become a member 47% (-4) – changes from 18-20 June 2021
- The proportion who would vote to re-join the EU includes one in ten Leave voters (10%)
- Just over three-quarters (77%) of those aged 18-34 would vote to re-join, compared to two in five 55+ (39%)
- Two in five adults overall would support having a referendum on the question in the next 5 years (40%), with just a third opposing it (34%)
- Support for a referendum to re-join the EU includes one in five Conservative voters (21%) and one in six Leavers (15%)
New polling from Savanta ComRes suggests that over half of UK adults (53%) would vote to re-join the EU in a referendum. This is 4pts higher than when we asked the same question in June of this year, when 49% said they would vote to re-join. Just under half would now vote to stay out (47%), down 4pts from June.
The proportion who would now vote to re-join the EU in a referendum rises to just over three-quarters of those aged 18-34 (77%) and eight in ten 2019 Labour voters (80%).
Furthermore, amongst those who voted to Leave in 2016, one in ten would now vote to re-join (10%). One in five Conservative voters who also vote to re-join (20%).
One in ten Remainers (11%), and one in five Labour voters (20%) would vote to stay out of the EU in a referendum.
Perhaps most striking though is that of those who did not vote in the 2016 referendum, eight in ten say they would now vote to re-join the EU (82%).
Regardless of which side of the debate you sit on, the societal divisions caused by Brexit have been profound and many believe that revisiting the subject would only serve to deepen these divisions.
Despite this, two in five UK adults would support a referendum on whether to re-join the EU within the next 5 years (40%), with just one third opposed to the idea (34%).
Support for holding another referendum in the near future rises to half of those aged 18-34 (49%) and almost two-thirds of Labour voters (63%). One in five Conservative voters also say they would support this (21%).
One in six Leave voters also say they would support a referendum within the next 5 years (15%), with the same proportion of Remainers saying they would oppose one (14%).
Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says,
“Five years on from the Brexit referendum, this polling suggests a country that is equally divided, but with the momentum shifting towards a majority who would now vote to re-join the EU. Indeed, a 4pt rise since June of those who say they would vote to become a member again is striking and indicates that issues such as disrupted supply chains and spats with fellow European leaders over fishing and vaccines may have cut through, although the results are still on a knife-edge.
And while many feel like the issue is best put to bed, the high levels of support for re-joining amongst younger voters, as well as the significant proportion who would back having such a referendum in the first place, indicates that the Brexit story isn’t going away any time soon. And, if it were to happen, all eyes will be on those who did not vote in 2016 and younger voters who may have not had the opportunity to, who are both overwhelmingly in favour of the UK becoming a member again.”
Date Published: 12/11/2021
Categories: Europe | Politics | Voting Intention
Client: Savanta ComRes
Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,231 UK adults between 5-7 November 2021. Data were weighted by age, sex, region and SEG, as well as by the results of the 2016 EU Referendum and 2019 General Election. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.