Daily Mail / ITV News EU Referendum Poll

Poll for Daily Mail and ITV News on the EU Referendum

Headline Findings

• Remain continues to lead to Leave as the EU referendum heads into its final two months; 51% of Britons say they would vote to remain, compared to 40% who say they would vote to leave.
• After likelihood to vote is taken into consideration and people who do not know how they will vote are excluded, this would give Remain a victory in an election situation of 58% to 42%, if the vote were held tomorrow.
• Despite a series of controversies facing Prime Minister David Cameron in recent weeks, they appear not to have impacted his standing with the public regarding the EU referendum debate. 34% of Britons say that he will be important when deciding how to vote, the same as in March (34%). Nevertheless the proportion of Britons saying Boris Johnson will be important to their decision has increased slightly from 29% to 32%, suggesting he is vying with the PM for the position of most influential voice in the EU debate.
• More Britons continue to think that leaving EU will be a big risk to the economy than think remaining in the EU would be (33% to 19%).
• However, more than half the public (56%) think that Britain’s £8.5bn net contribution to the EU is bad value for money; only a third (32%) think it is good value for money.
• If the money were not spent on the EU, the public overwhelmingly would most like to see the money spent on healthcare and the NHS (57%).

Findings in Detail

Q. If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

	All GB adults	Turnout weighted
Remain	51% (+3)	58% (NC)
Leave	40% (-1)	42% (NC)
Don’t Know	9% (-2)	–

Base: GB adults (n=1,002). Changes since the last ComRes telephone poll for ITV News (18-20 March). Turnout weighted (n=838).

• Among the public as a whole, Remain holds an 11 point lead over Leave, greater than the seven point lead seen in the last ITV News poll in March.
• Once the results are weighted to reflect people’s different likelihood to vote (using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model), there is a sixteen point lead for Remain unchanged from the March poll. As with results seen in March, this is predominantly due to the large lead for Remain among affluent AB social grade voters who are most likely to vote (69% Remain to 23% Leave).

Q. Who of the following, if any, will be important to you in deciding how you will vote at the upcoming referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union?

	March	April
David Cameron	34%	34%
Boris Johnson	29%	32%
Jeremy Corbyn	24%	25%
Nigel Farage	18%	19%
Nicola Sturgeon	15%	18%
Michael Gove	13%	14%
Other	1%	1%
None	31%	28%
Don’t know	2%	*

Base: GB adults in April (n=1,002); GB adults in March (n=1,002)

• Results remain relatively consistent with those seen in March, with a slight increase in those saying Boris Johnson (from 29% to 32%) and Nicola Sturgeon (from 15% to 18%) will be important in deciding how they will vote in the upcoming referendum.
• Among Conservative voters more than three in five (63%) say that David Cameron will be important to them in deciding how they will vote in June, while 41% say Boris Johnson will be important.
• More than half of Labour supporters (54%) cite Jeremy Corbyn as important in their decision in the upcoming referendum; while a quarter refer to Nicola Sturgeon (24%).
• Labour voters are more likely than Conservative voters to say that none of the political figures tested will be important in deciding how they will vote in the upcoming referendum (26% vs 15%).
• Nigel Farage seems to have greater resonance amongst male rather than female voters; 22% of men say he will be important in their decision, compared to 17% of women.

Q. How much of a risk, if any, do you think there is to the British economy if…

	Britain leaves the European Union		Britain remains in the European Union
	March	April	March	April
Big risk	30%	33%	17%	19%
Slight risk	39%	37%	35%	34%
Hardly any risk	14%	12%	25%	24%
No risk at all	12%	13%	17%	18%
Don’t know	5%	5%	5%	5%

• Results are relatively consistent to March, however slightly more adults say that Britain leaving the EU is a big risk to the British economy (33% in April and 30% in March).
• Similar to results seen in March, Conservative voters are more likely to say that leaving the EU would be a risk to the UK economy (75%) than say that remaining would be a risk to the economy (62%).
• Twice as many Labour voters say that leaving the EU would be a risk to the UK economy than remaining (81% vs 42%).

 Q. When calculated how much the UK pays the EU and how much it receives back, the UK spends a net £8.5 billion pounds on the EU. Do you think this represents good or bad value for money?

	All
Good value for money	32%
Bad value for money	56%
Don’t know	12%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).

• A third of Remain voters (32%) say that how much the UK pays and receives back from the EU is bad value for money; while more than half (56%) say it represents good value for money. Leave voters however, overwhelmingly think it represents bad value for money (87%).
• Around than three in five Conservative voters (63%) say that it represents bad value for money, while 27% say it is good value for money.

Q. If Britain did not spend this money on the EU, which of the following would you most want the government to spend the £8.5 billion pounds on?

	All
Healthcare and the NHS	57%
Education and schools	18%
Care for the elderly	8%
Defence and Counter terrorism	7%
Cutting taxes	4%
Policing	2%
Other	2%
None	1%
Don’t’ know	1%

Base: GB adults (n=1,002).

• Labour voters are more likely to say that they would most want to government to spend the money on the Healthcare and the NHS than Conservative voters (64% vs 55%).

Date Published: 20th April 2016

Categories: Elections | EU Referendum | GB | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Daily Mail / ITV News

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,002 British adults aged 18+ from 16^th-19^th April 2016. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults aged 18+. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules

1. Daily-Mail-ITV-News_EU-Referendum-Poll_April-2016 0.02 MB.