Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday March Political Poll

Political poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday, including voting intention.

GREEN SURGE CHECKED

The Green surge appears to have stalled after Natalie Bennett, the party leader, suffered what she called a “brain fade” in a radio interview last month, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror. The Green Party has dropped four points in the Favourability Index since January, putting it level with the UK Independence Party. A mere 6 per cent of voters have a favourable view of Ms Bennett, who has not been polled before, while 26 per cent have an unfavourable view.

The poll gives Labour a two-point lead over the Conservatives in voting intention, unchanged from last month.

Con 33% (+1)

Lab 35% (+1)

LD 7% (NC)

UKIP 16% (NC)

Greens 4% (NC)

Others 5% (-2)

Key points:

Favourability Index

David Cameron is the politician most considered favourably by voters; 27% of whom have a favourable opinion of him.
In a change since January, the Labour Party (29%) are now seen as favourably as the Conservatives (28%), following an increase of three points.
Ed Miliband has seen a similar increase in his favourability rating of three points (20% favourable), although half of say they are unfavourabletowards the Labour leader (50%).

Natalie Bennett (6%) and Nicola Sturgeon (10%) are the two leaders viewed least favourably among voters.

The Green Party are now viewed more unfavourably (31%) than favourably (24%) compared to January, with a seven-point decrease since January (24%).

Future PM

British adults are more likely to think that David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister than Ed Miliband (33% compared to 20%).

Public Spending

The public are split over the Conservatives comments on additional savings that can be made by cutting the amount spent on welfare benefits; two in five agree (41%), while over a third (36%) disagree.

Britain going in the right direction?

British adults are more likely to agree that Britain is going in the wrong direction (46%) than in the right direction (37%).
Just more than a quarter of 18-24 year olds think Britain is going in the right direction (27%), compared to half of all aged 65+ (50%).

Parties and tax

Britons are more likely to think they will pay more tax under a Labour (34%), than Conservative Government (29%). This represents a rise of four points for the Labour Party since December 2013, when the parties were tied on 30%.

Findings in detail

Favourability Index

How favourable or unfavourable are you to each of the following?

	Favourable	Unfavourable	Neither	Don’t know	NET
The Labour Party	29% (+3)	45%	18%	8%	-16 (+3)
The Conservative Party	28% (-1)	46%	18%	7%	-18 (-2)
David Cameron	27% (-1)	47%	20%	6%	-20 (-2)
The Green Party	24% (-4)	31%	35%	11%	-7 (-7)
UKIP	24% (-2)	49%	19%	9%	-25 (-3)
Nigel Farage	22% (-1)	50%	19%	9%	-28 (-3)
Ed Miliband	20% (+3)	50%	21%	9%	-30 (+4)
The Liberal Democrats	14% (+1)	51%	27%	8%	-37 (+1)
Nick Clegg	12% (+1)	52%	27%	9%	-40 (+3)
Nicola Sturgeon**	10%	35%	24%	31%	-25
SNP*	10% (+2)	46%	29%	16%	-36 (+3)
Natalie Bennett**	6%	26%	25%	42%	-20

Base: All GB adults (n=2,002). Figures in brackets changes from January 2015, exceptions: *changes from August 2014, **First time listed in Favourability Index

A quarter of Liberal Democrat voters say they are favourable towards David Cameron (26%), compared to less than a fifth who say they are favourable towards Ed Miliband (15%).

Future PM

Q: Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the election	20%	43%	37%
David Cameron is likely to be Prime Minister after the election	33%	30%	37%

Base: All GB adults (n=2,002).

More than two thirds of Conservative voters (69%) agree that David Cameron is likely to be Prime Minister after the election. Less than half of Labour voters say the same about their own leader (46%).
Liberal Democrat voters are more likely to agree that David Cameron is likely to be Prime Minister after the election (38%), compared to less than one in six who agree Ed Miliband is likely to be the next Prime Minister (13%).
Younger people are more likely to think that Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the election than older people (25% of 18-24 year olds, 16% aged 65).

Public spending

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Given the current state of the government’s finances, the Government can slow the pace of cuts to public spending	43%	22%	34%
The Conservatives are right to say that the substantial additional savings can be made by cutting the amount spent on welfare benefits	41%	36%	24%

Base: All GB adults (n=2,002).

The British public are more likely to agree than disagree that given the current state of the government’s finances, the Government can slow the pace of cuts to public spending (43% vs. 22%). A third say they don’t know (34%).
The public are split over the Conservatives comments on additional savings that can be made by cutting the amount spent on welfare benefits; two in five agree (41%), while over a third (36%) disagree. A quarter say they don’t know (24%), further reflecting uncertainty over the two statements.
Half of all UKIP voters (52%) agree the Conservatives are right to say that substantial additional savings can be made by cutting the amount spent on welfare benefits.

Britain going in the right direction?

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Overall, Britain is going in the right direction	37%	46%	17%
Overall Britain is going in the wrong direction	46%	38%	18%

Base: All GB adults (n=2,002).

Four in five Conservative voters think that Britain is going in the right direction (78%), the only group with a majority to agree with this statement.
Three in five Labour and UKIP voters (both 62%) agree that Britain is going in the wrong direction.

Parties and tax

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
If Labour win the next general election, I expect that I would pay more tax than if the Conservatives win it	34%(+4)	31%(-3)	35%(NC)
If the Conservatives win the next general election, I expect that I would pay more tax than if Labour win it	29%(-1)	37%(+3)	34%(-2)

Base: All GB adults (n=2,002). Figures in brackets are changes since December 2013.

One in three Britons (34%) now expect to pay more tax under a Labour than a Conservative Government. This represents a rise of four points since December 2013 when the two parties were both tied on 30%.
UKIP voters are more likely to think they will pay more tax under a Labour government (40%) than a Conservative one (29%).

Date Published: 15th March 2015

Categories: GE2015 | Politics | Public and communities | UK | Voting Intention

Client: Independent on Sunday / Sunday Mirror

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,002 GB adults online between 11^th and 13^th March 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.