GB Business Confidence saw a small decline in Q2 2024

Confidence increased significantly for larger businesses with a turnover of to £1m+, but decreased for start-ups and established businesses with a turnover up to £1m

New start-ups have a Confidence Index of 36, a decrease of -2 points compared to Q1 2024.

The Confidence Index among smaller established businesses has decreased by -1 point to 38. Larger businesses, with annual sales above £1m, have significantly increased (by +4 points) and this is the most confident group with an Index of 47.

Confidence decreased in 4 geographical regions

North/North West and Midlands/ East are now the most confident regions a with Confidence Index of 40. However, North/North West has increased by +2 points from Q1 2024 while Midlands/ East has decreased by -1 point.

London is in third position but shows a decrease of – 1 point (38).

Following, in joint fourth position and with a score of 37 are South East which has lost -3 points and Scotland which has gained 3 points.

Wales/South West is in last position for this quarter. It has decreased significantly by -4 points and its score is now 34.

An Index of less than 50 means more businesses are pessimistic, rather than optimistic, about the current state of the economy.

Confidence down in 7 industry sectors

At Q2 2024, confidence increased in 2 of the 9 industry sectors (Accommodation and Transport) and decreased in 7 (Construction, Business Services, Education, Wholesale Production, Agriculture and Other Services).

The greatest increase was in the Accommodation sector, with an increase of +7 points, gaining joint first position once again with a score of 40. Construction shares first position despite a decrease of -1 point since Q1 2024.

Transport and Business Services are in joint third position with a score of 39, however the first increased by +2 points while the second decreased by -1 point this quarter.

Education, Wholesale, Production, Agriculture and Other Services are below average.

The Wholesale and Education sectors have equal Confidence Indices (37). Wholesale has a decrease of -2 points whilst Education has a significant decrease of – 11 points.

The Agriculture and Production sectors have both a Confidence Indices of 36, with a drop of – 1 point for the former and-3 points for the latter.

Other Services has moved to last position, with a loss of -1 point to 34.

Amongst start-ups and small businesses, Business Confidence decreased for up to 34 year olds and 35-64s, but increased for 65+

Looking at start-ups and established businesses with a turnover of £0-2m, Business Confidence decreased for younger business owners (up to 34-year-olds), (-1 point to 37) remaining just below average.

The scores for those aged 35-64 decreased by -2 points to 36 for this quarter.

Those aged 65 and over remain the most confident group also for this quarter, with a score of 42 which is +2 points higher than last quarter.

Commenting on the findings Philippa Whitham, Senior Director at Savanta, said:

“Quarter 2 heralded the unexpected announcement on May 22nd of a UK General Election. Historically, the lead up to an election is a time of volatility, so it is very encouraging to see that overall Q2 confidence remained virtually unchanged. We will have to wait until the end of Q3 to find out the immediate impact of a change in government. However, it is fair to say that we are unlikely to see confidence soar to the Q1 2020 level we saw just after Boris Johnson’s victory.”

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About Market Vue Business Confidence

Quarterly findings are from Savanta’s Market Vue Business Confidence programme conducted among 2713 GB businesses from start-ups to companies with £1bn turnover, surveyed between 27th March 2024 – 21st June 2024. Indices are mean scores based on a scale of ‘extremely positive’ (100), ‘fairly positive’ (75), ‘neither positive nor negative’ (50), ‘fairly negative’ (25) and ‘extremely negative’ (0), for the question “How do you feel about the current health of the UK economy?”

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For further comment, please contact Richard Brooks on [email protected] or 07740858477.