SUNDAY MIRROR / INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY POLITICAL POLL APRIL 2015

Telephone poll of 1,000 British adults including voting intention

With less than a week to go until the General Election, the Conservatives and Labour are tied in the latest ComRes telephone poll for the Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror.

Both are on 33% of the vote, having both fallen two points since the last ComRes telephone poll. The poll reinforces just how tight the race for Number 10 is, with it all still to play for heading into the final week of the campaign.

Among the smaller parties, the Liberal Democrats currently stand on 8%, with UKIP rising by two points to 13%, maintaining their position as the third largest party in terms of vote share. The Greens remain one point behind the Liberal Democrats on 7%.

Con 33% (-2)

Lab 33% (-2)

Lib Dem 8% (+1)

UKIP 13% (+2)

Green 7% (+1)

Others 6% (NC)

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling said: “The debates and major TV set pieces have come and gone and we’re now just a few days from polling day with Labour and the Conservatives locked together in the polls. While the Conservatives have edged ahead in many recent polls, they will need more than a slender lead if David Cameron is to return as Prime Minister. While Ed Miliband has this week ruled out a formal deal with the SNP he knows his path to Downing Street is easier than it is for the Conservatives, even if he ends up with a fewer MPs. The SNP will become the third largest party in the House of Commons and their influence will be key. While Labour may not offer a formal deal to the SNP he will likely rely on their support if needed.”

Key points:

Cameron vs Miliband:

• More than three in five Britons think David Cameron is a capable leader, compared to less than two in five who say the same of Ed Miliband (63% v 38%).
• A fifth of Labour voters (19%) think Ed Miliband is nota capable leader, compared to just 2% of Conservative voters who think the same of David Cameron.
• However, British adults are more than twice as likely to think that David Cameron is heartless, compared to those who say the same of Ed Miliband (32% v 14%).
• In addition, adults in Britain are more likely to think David Cameron is too pleased with himself, compared to Ed Miliband (56% against 45%).

Looking ahead to the future:

• Based on what they have seen and heard of the General Election campaign over the last few weeks, British adults are more likely to say they feel negativethan positiveabout the future (47% v 33%).

Findings in detail:

Positivity about the future:

Q: From what you have seen and heard of the general election campaign over the last few weeks, would you say it has made you feel more positive or more negative about the future?

	%
Positive	33%
Negative	47%
Don’t know	20%

Base: All GB adults (n=1,002).

• When asked to think in the context of the election campaign, younger adults in Britain aged 18-24 are more likely to feel positive about the future than those aged 55+ (50% v 28%).
• Conservative voters are split over how they feel about the future (40% positive, 37% negative).
• Labour voters are more likely to say they feel negative about the future than positive (45% v 35%).

Cameron vs Miliband:

Q: For each of the following words or phrases please tell me if you think they apply or not to David Cameron / Ed Miliband.

	David Cameron	Ed Miliband
A capable leader	63%	38%
Too pleased with himself	56%	45%
Understands the problems facing Britain	48%	51%
Heartless	32%	14%

Base: All GB adults (n=1,002). Showing % of voters who say ‘yes’ to each word or phrase 

Leadership:

• Young adults in Britain aged 18-24 are almost twice as likely as those aged 65+ to think Ed Miliband is a capable leader (48% v 26%).

• Nonetheless, David Cameron still leads among all age groups; with seven in ten 18-24 year olds saying he is a capable leader (71%). Additionally, adults aged 65+ are more than twice as likely to think he is a capable leader when compared with Ed Miliband (62% Cameron, 26% Miliband).
• While almost half of all Labour voters think David Cameron is a capable leader (47%), only 11% of Conservative voters think the same of Ed Miliband.
• More than half of all voters think Ed Miliband is not a capable leader (52%), compared to three in ten who say the same of David Cameron (30%).

Understands the problems Britain faces:

• Half of all UKIP voters think David Cameron understands the problems facing Britain (50%). However, even fewer (30%) think Ed Miliband does.

Too pleased with themselves:

• A third (33%) of Labour voters think Ed Miliband is too pleased with himself, compared to more than half of all Conservative voters (56%).

• Conservative voters are far less likely than Labour voters (28% v 77%) to think that Cameron is pleased with himself.

Heartless:

Half of all Labour voters think David Cameron is heartless (49%), compared to a fifth (18%) of Conservative voters who say the same of Miliband

Date Published: 2nd May 2015

Categories: Media | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,002 GB adults by telephone between 28^th and 30^th April 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules

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