Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday January 2016 Political Poll

Voting intention poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday, additional questions on Trident, Corbyn and Cameron’s leadership

THE EU REFERENDUM

The British public remain split on what they think the result of the EU referendum will be; 40% think the country will vote to leave, compared to 38% who expect most people will vote to stay. These figures show little change since October 2015.

THE PARTY LEADERS

Following the Shadow Cabinet reshuffle earlier this month, only 8% of the public think that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is united. Around three quarters of the British public (73%) think Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is divided; an increase of 11percentage points from last year (64% in Oct 2015).
This compares with 42% who say David Cameron’s Conservative Party is divided and 36% who say it is united.
The British public are more than twice as likely to say that Jeremy Corbyn would make a bad Prime Minister (56%) than a good one (22%).
More than five years into the role, the British public remain divided on David Cameron’s performance as a Prime Minister (42% say good; 40% say bad) – although his rating is far higher than expectations of Mr Corbyn’s performance.

CONSERVATIVE LEADER

Boris Johnson retains a lead over George Osborne in terms of being seen as making a better Prime Minister (39% v 27% respectively).
However, among Conservative voters, George Osborne enjoys a small lead (40% say Osborne v 36% Johnson).

THE SYRIAN REFUGEE CRISIS

British adults are more than twice as likely to agree that David Cameron should stop, rather than continue, accepting refugees from Syria coming into the UK (61% v 23%).

TRIDENT & NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Britons are more likely to back renewing Trident (54%) and having a nuclear weapon (49%) than oppose (22% and 28% respectively).

TOPICAL ISSUES

Half of all British adults support the junior doctors strike that took place this week (51% v 31% oppose).
More than four in five British adults (84%) support requiring people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before claiming tax credits and other benefits.
However, Britons are more likely to support than oppose EU’s principle of free movement of labour; almost half (49%) say they support citizens of EU countries being free to work in other EU countries while 29% oppose it.
More than half of Britons (54%) support the idea of scrapping the automatic financial link between trade union membership and the Labour Party, and introducing an ‘opt-in’ system.
- Seven in ten Conservative voters support this policy (71%), compared to two in five Labour voters (42%).

Findings in detail:

The EU Referendum

Q: For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your view?

Option 1

Option 2

Don’t Know

I expect most people to vote for the UK to leave the EU at the referendum

40%

(37%)

38%

(40%)

I expect most people to vote to stay in the EU at the referendum

22%

(23%)

Base: GB adults (n=2,004). Data in brackets shows data from October 2015

Young people aged 18-24 are more likely than those aged 65+ to expect people to vote for the UK to stay in the EU at the referendum (59% v 30%).
Conservative voters are marginally more likely to say they expect most people to vote for the UK to leave the EU at the referendum than stay (44% v 37%), while Labour voters say the opposite by a similar margin (47% v 31%). Seven in ten UKIP voters think more people will vote to leave (70%).

The Party Leaders

Q: For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your view?

Option 1	%	%	Option 2	Don’t Know
Jeremy Corbyn would make a good Prime Minister	22%	56%	Jeremy Corbyn would make a bad Prime Minister	22%
David Cameron is a good Prime Minister	42%	40%	David Cameron is a bad Prime Minister	17%
Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is united	8% (16%)	73% (64%)	Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is divided	18% (21%)
David Cameron’s Conservative Party is united	36% (43%)	42% (35%)	David Cameron’s Conservative Party is divided	22% (22%)

Base: GB adults (n=2,004). Data in brackets shows data from October 2015

Only one in five Labour voters (20%) say the party under Jeremy Corbyn is united – two thirds say it is divided (65%). On the other hand, Conservative voters say the exact opposite of their party under David Cameron (67% united and 19% divided).
Only around half of Labour voters say that Jeremy Corbyn would make a good Prime Minister (54%), with a quarter saying he would make a bad one (24%).
Young people aged 18-24 are more likely than those aged 65+ to say that Jeremy Corbyn would make a good Prime Minister (43% v 9%). This is higher than the proportion of young people who say that David Cameron is a good Prime Minister (36%).
Four in five Conservative voters currently back their Prime Minister; 81% say he is a good Prime Minister, while just 8% say he is a bad one.

Conservative Leader

Q: For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your view?

Option 1

Option 2

Don’t Know

George Osborne would make a better Prime Minister than Boris Johnson

27%

(33%)

39%

(39%)

Boris Johnson would make a better Prime Minister than George Osborne

34%

(29%)

Base: GB adults (n=2,004). Data in brackets shows data from October 2015

Boris Johnson is viewed more favourably among younger voters than George Osborne; 42% of 18-24 year olds say the Mayor of London would make a better PM than George Osborne, compared to 26% who say the same of the Chancellor.
However, compared to October when George Osborne had a 14 point lead among Conservatives (48% Osborne, 34% Johnson), the gap has narrowed to four points – 40% saying George Osborne, while 36% say the same of Boris Johnson.
Labour voters are more likely to back Boris Johnson (39%) than George Osborne (23%), as are UKIP voters (48% to 23%).

The Syrian refugee crisis

Q: For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your view?

Option 1	%	%	Option 2	Don’t Know
David Cameron should stop accepting refugees coming into the UK from Syria	61%	23%	David Cameron should continue to accept refugees coming into the UK from Syria	16%

Base: GB adults (n=2,004)

Three in five British adults think David Cameron should stop accepting refugees coming into the UK from Syria, compared to a quarter who say he should continue accepting them (61% v 23%).
Conservative voters are particularly likely to say that Cameron should stop accepting refugees from Syria; more than seven in ten say this (72%), compared to 44% of Labour voters. Nine in ten UKIP voters say the Prime Minister should stop accepting refugees coming into the UK from Syria (89%).

Trident & Nuclear weapons

Q: Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Statement	SUPPORT	OPPOSE	DON’T KNOW
Britain renewing its Trident nuclear weapons programme as long as other countries have nuclear weapons	54%	22%	24%
Britain leading the way in nuclear disarmament by not renewing its Trident nuclear weapons programme	31%	35%	33%

Base: Split sample – half the sample (1,002 GB adults) were asked each statement

Statement

SUPPORT

OPPOSE

DON’T KNOW

The UK having a nuclear weapon

(Base: 1,003 GB adults)

49%

28%

22%

The UK getting rid of its nuclear weapons

(Base: 1,001 GB adults)

25%

48%

27%

Base: Split sample – half the sample were asked each statement

Conservative voters are far more likely than their Labour counterparts to support the UK having a nuclear weapon (68% Conservatives v 39% Labour) and renewing Trident, as long as other countries have nuclear weapons (78% v 39% respectively).
Despite Jeremy Corbyn’s clear stance on the issue, Labour voters are split over renewing Trident – 39% support this policy and 38% oppose it. However, when the wording is different, to reference “Britain leading the way in nuclear disarmament by not renewing its Trident nuclear weapons programme” 45% support it while 25% oppose.

Topical issues

Q: Do you support or oppose each of the following?

Statement	SUPPORT	OPPOSE	DON’T KNOW
Requiring people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before claiming tax credits and other benefits	84%	8%	9%
Scrapping the automatic financial link between trade union membership and the Labour Party, and introducing an ‘opt-in’ for those members who want some of their fee to go to Labour	54%	11%	35%
The junior doctors strike that took place this week	51%	31%	18%
Citizens of the European Union (EU) countries being free to work in other EU countries	49%	29%	25%
Sending parents to parenting classes	46%	30%	24%
Increasing focus on rehabilitation, rather than sending criminals to prison	35%	41%	23%

Base: GB adults (n=2,004)

Labour voters are far more likely than Conservative ones to support the junior doctors strike (73% Labour voters v 31% Conservatives).
Almost all Conservative voters (96%) support the idea of requiring people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years, before claiming tax credits and other benefits.
- While the vast majority of adults support this (84%), Labour voters are less likely than average (75%).
More than half of all British adults (54%) support the idea of scrapping the automatic financial link between trade union membership and the Labour Party, and introducing an ‘opt-in’ for those members who want some of their fee to go to Labour.
- Seven in ten Conservative voters support this policy (71%), compared to two in five Labour voters (42%).
Half of all women in Britain support the idea to send parents to parenting classes (52%), compared to 41% of men who say the same.

Voting intention

The Conservatives have maintained their lead of 11 points over Labour since December 2015 – 40% to 29%.

Con 40% (NC)

Lab 29% (NC)

LD 7% (NC)

UKIP 16% (NC)

Green 3% (NC)

SNP 4% (NC)

Other 1% (NC)

Date Published: 16th January 2016

Categories: GB | Voting Intention

Client: Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,004 GB adults online between 13th and 15th January 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.