ITV News / Daily Mail Political Poll

Political poll, including voting intention, for ITV News and the Daily Mail.

CONSERVATIVES CONTINUE TO LEAD LABOUR

The Conservatives have reinforced their lead in this week’s ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail and ITV News. This continues the trend of a small but consistent lead for the Conservatives, with Labour yet to see a lead in a ComRes telephone poll this year. Despite this, with 14 days to go until the election, the Tories will still remain unsure of winning a majority of seats in the Commons.

The Liberal Democrats see their gains from ComRes’s last telephone poll two weeks ago wiped out, dropping four points to 8%. Despite a fall of two points to 10%, UKIP are marginally ahead of the Liberal Democrats. The Greens remain relatively unchanged on 5% (up one point).

Con 36% (+2)

Lab 32% (-1)

Lib Dem 8% (-4)

UKIP 10% (-2)

Green 5% (+1)

Others 9% (+3)

Voting intention in England and Wales (excluding Scotland) closely reflects that in Britain as a whole, with the Conservatives leading Labour by four points (38% to 34%). In England and Wales the Liberal Democrats are on 7%, with UKIP on 12% and the Greens on 5%.

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling at ComRes said: “Our latest poll continues the trend we’ve seen all year, with the Conservatives just, but consistently, ahead of Labour. Despite this lead, both parties have very similar proportions of the electorate willing to consider voting for them. With just two weeks left and the margin so fine, both Labour and the Conservatives will be exerting most of their efforts on moving people from these pools of potential support into polling booths across the country to make their votes count.”

Key points:

Possibility of voting for major parties:

Labour and the Conservatives have the broadest appeal, with around half of British adults saying that they would consider voting for each (48% and 47% respectively).
Around three in ten say that they would consider voting for UKIP (29%) or the Liberal Democrats (28%).
The catastrophic drop in support for the Liberal Democrats is clearly seen in the attitudes of past voters – two in five (41%) of 2010 Lib Dem voters say that they would not consider voting for the Lib Dems in 2015.
However, a quarter (25%) of both Conservative and Labour voters say that they would consider voting Lib Dem, suggesting that the party can appeal to voters on either side of the political spectrum. Conservative voters (27%) are almost twice as likely as Labour (14%) and Lib Dem (15%) voters to say that they would consider voting for UKIP.

Smaller parties:

There is general agreement among British adults that the greater presence of smaller parties in the political system is good for democracy, and that they are good to have in government (75% agree with each).
More than half of British adults (57%) disagree that a hung parliament places too much power in the hands of smaller parties, and seven in ten (70%) disagree that having smaller parties in government is undemocratic.
Conservative voters are notably less positive about the rise of smaller parties.

Date Published: 23rd April 2015

Client: ITV News / Daily Mail

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,003 GB adults by telephone between 21^st and 22^nd April 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention includes both those likely to vote and those who have already voted by post. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.