INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY/ SUNDAY MIRROR SEPTEMBER 2015 POLL

Poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror on voting intention and Jeremy Corbyn.

Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling, ComRes said: “It is still very early days in the Corbyn leadership and it is too early to tell what impact he will have on voting intentions. However, his marmite effect continues in leadership as it did during the campaign. This poll reveals that the Conservative attacks on the danger the new Labour leader poses is having some impact, he is also offering a breath of fresh air to politics for many people.”

FAVOURABILITY TOWARDS POLITICIANS:

Almost twice as Britons say they are unfavourable towards Jeremy Corbyn as say they are favourable (24% favourable v 42% unfavourable).
Although a similar proportion of the public view David Cameron unfavourably (42%), over a third view the Prime Minister favourably (35%) and his net favourability score is higher than Mr. Corbyn’s (-7 v -18).
Of the twelve politicians tested, Boris Johnson is the most popular with a net favourability score of +8 and the greatest proportion saying they are favourable towards him (39%).
Nick Clegg is the most unpopular, with a net favourability score of -27 and 45% holding an unfavourable opinion of the former Liberal Democrat leader.
There is very little awareness of John McDonnell, Tom Watson and Tim Farron- around half say “don’t know” for each.

JEREMY CORBYN AND NATIONAL/ECONOMIC SECURITY:

Over a third of Britons think Mr. Corbyn is a danger to national and economic security (35% and 37% respectively); 10 percentage points higher than the proportion who think the Prime Minister is a danger to national security (25%).
The Conservative messages around Mr Corbyn being a danger appear to have cut through more with the voting public than the general public. 42% of the voting public say Mr Corbyn is a danger to national security and 42% think he is a danger to economic security.

JEREMY CORBYN:

Half of British adults agree that Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial (50%).
Two in five adults agree that at 70 years old, Jeremy Corbyn would be too old to be Prime Minister at the next General Election; though attitudes are mixed overall (40% agree v 41% disagree).
The public are far more likely to disagree than agree that Jeremy Corbyn should smarten up his appearance by shaving off his beard. Despite this, around one in five still think he should shave off his beard (22% agree, 54% disagree).

VOTING INTENTION:

The election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader has so far had little impact on the polls with the Conservatives holding a 12 point lead.

Findings in detail:

Favourability towards politicians

Q: Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following politicians…

Politician	Favourable	Unfavourable	Neither	Don’t know	NET (Favourable – Unfavourable)
Boris Johnson	39%	31%	22%	8%	+8
David Cameron	35%	42%	17%	6%	-7
Theresa May	22%	33%	29%	16%	-11
George Osborne	25%	42%	22%	11%	-17
Tom Watson	11%	19%	26%	45%	-8
Chuka Umunna	13%	22%	29%	35%	-9
John McDonnell	6%	23%	23%	48%	-17
Jeremy Corbyn	24%	42%	20%	15%	-18
Tim Farron	6%	18%	29%	47%	-12
Vince Cable	17%	31%	31%	21%	-14
Nicola Sturgeon	24%	43%	20%	13%	-19
Nick Clegg	18%	45%	29%	8%	-27

Base: GB adults (n=2,015)

David Cameron and George Osborne are viewed more favourably amongst the voting public* than British adults overall (43% and 32% of the voting public respectively say they are favourable).

o David Cameron’s net favourability score increases by 10 percentage points among the voting public (+3) than the wider British public (-7).

Despite receiving the vote of more than 250,000 Labour members, half of the voting British public view Jeremy Corbyn unfavourably (48%), and his net favourability score is lower than compared to the wider British public (-22 v -18).
Almost three in five Labour voters say they are favourable towards Jeremy Corbyn (57%) and Corbyn has a high net favourability score among Labour supporters of +47. This compares with the +79 rating Mr Cameron enjoys among Conservatives supporters.
Favourability towards Mr Corbyn is highest among 18-34 year olds (28%) and lowest among those aged 65+ (18%). Despite this, 18-34 year olds are also the group most likely to say they don’t know who Jeremy Corbyn is (26% 18-24, 21% 25-34) – suggesting that this group is the most polarised in terms of political awareness and support for the Labour leader.
Looking beyond Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon and Tom Watson (both +14) are the only other politicians to have a positive net favourability score among Labour voters (both +14).
Similar proportions of the public are favourable and unfavourable to Mr Corbyn and George Osborne (25% favourable v 42% unfavourable).

o Additionally, Osborne has a similar net favourability score among Conservative voters as Corbyn does Labour (+45 Osborne, +47 Corbyn).

Around three quarters of people saying they would currently vote Conservative have an unfavourable view of Jeremy Corbyn (72%).

Jeremy Corbyn and national/economic security

Q: Do you think agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to economic security	37%	31%	32%
Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national security	35%	34%	31%
David Cameron is a danger to national security	25%	53%	22%

Base: GB adults (n=2,015)

The Conservative messages around Mr Corbyn being a danger appear to have cut through more with the voting public than the general public. 42% of the voting public say Mr Corbyn is a danger to national security and 42% think he is a danger to economic security.
Six in ten Conservative voters think Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national security (62%), as do one in ten Labour voters (10%).
More than half of all adults in Britain aged 65+ think Jeremy Corbyn is a danger to national and economic security (56% and 58% respectively), compared to around one in five 18-24 year olds (17% and 20%).

Jeremy Corbyn

Q: Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Jeremy Corbyn is making more people interested in politics	52%	22%	26%
Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial	50%	29%	21%
Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians	41%	31%	28%
At 70 years old, Jeremy Corbyn would be too old to be Prime Minister at the next General Election	40%	41%	19%
Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media	37%	37%	26%
Jeremy Corbyn should smarten up his appearance by shaving off his beard	22%	54%	23%

Base: GB adults (n=2,015)

Despite half of the public agreeing that Jeremy Corbyn should have sung the national anthem at the Battle of Britain memorial (50%), only a third of Labour voters feel the same (32%), and they are instead more likely to disagree (46%).

o Three quarters of Conservative voters agree he should have (75%).

Older people are the group most likely to say Corbyn will be too old to be Prime Minister in 2020 (49% of 65+, compared to 23% 18-24 year olds).
Conservative voters are most likely to be in favour of Corbyn shaving off his beard (35% agree he should smarten up by shaving it off, compared to 12% of Labour supporters).
A plurality of voters from all parties agree Jeremy Corbyn is making more people interested in politics (73% Labour, 42% Conservative).
Two thirds of Labour voters think their leader is being treated unfairly by the media (67%, compared to 14% Conservatives).

Voting intention

Despite the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, voting intentions have not changed significantly with the Conservatives on 42% (up 2 since August) and Labour on 30% (up 1).

UKIP remain in third with 13%.

Con 42% (+2)

Lab 30% (+1)

LD 7% (-1)

UKIP 13% (=)

Green 3% (-1)

SNP 5% (=)

Other 1% (=)

*Voting public = using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model to model those likely to vote.

Date Published: 19th September 2015

Categories: GB | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Independent on Sunday / SUnday Mirror

Methodology

Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,015 GB adults online between 16th and 17th September 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.