Independent on Sunday / Sunday Mirror December 2015 Political Poll

Poll of 2,000 Britons for Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror including voting intention and focussing on Corbyn, Syria and climate change

Jeremy Corbyn has made more of an impact on the public than Ed Miliband did at this stage in his leadership according to the monthly ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

The Labour leader appears to be a more polarising figure than his predecessor. At the same point of Ed Miliband’s leadership in December 2010, half of the public (50%) said they did not know if he was turning out to be a good leader. They appear to have a more firm view of Corbyn however, with a higher proportion both agreeing (25%) and disagreeing (46%) that he is turning out to be a good leader than Miliband did (17% and 32%). Corbyn’s net score of -21 is lower than Miliband’s net score of -15.

Voting intention

Con 40% (-2)

Lab 29% (+2)

LD 7% (NC)

UKIP 16% (+1)

Green 3% (NC)

Corbyn

One in four Britons (25%) think that Jeremy Corbyn is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party – including around half of Labour voters (56%).
By comparison 29% say that Hilary Benn would make a good leader of the Labour Party, although only 25% of Labour voters agree (compared to 42% of Conservative voters).
One in three Britons (35%) think that David Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister, compared with 38% in December 2010, and 47% a bad prime minister, compared with 40% five years ago.
40% agree that Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians, while 37% say that he is being treated unfairly by the media.

Three quarters of Britons (74%) agree that people from the EU who come to live in the UK should only receive tax credits after living here for four years, however just a third of people (31%) think Cameron will be able to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU so that this can happen.

Syria

Around half of Britons (47%) agreeBritain should take part in air strikes against Da’esh in Syria at the current time, compared to a third (33%) who disagree.
However, just a quarter (25%) think British troops should get involved in a ground war there – half disagree (48%)
One in three (32%) say that there are no circumstances under which British troops should be sent to fight a ground war against ISIS – up slightly from 25% last month.

Climate Change

Just less than half of British adults (46%) think the recent storms and flooding in the UK are probably a result of climate change mainly caused by human activity – a quarter disagree (26%).
However, just one in five (22%) think that the Government should raise taxes to pay for better flood defences.

Christmas

One in seven Britons (15%) say that they can only afford to pay for Christmas by using credit cards and overdrafts – a similar proportion who did so in the wake of the recession in 2011.
87% of Britons agree that people generally feel under pressure to spend too much at Christmas.
Just less than half of Britons (45%) say that they plan to spend less on Christmas this year than last year.

Universal Basic Income

Although Finland has raised the idea of scrapping all welfare payments and replacing them with a 800 euro payment to everyone in the country, the British public are not enthusiastic about the idea. Just one in six (18%) agree with the idea of replacing welfare with a flat-rate monthly payment to all citizens instead, while half disagree with it (53%).

Corbyn

Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Jeremy Corbyn is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party (Miliband Dec 2010)	25% (17%)	46% (32%)	30% (50%)
David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister (Dec 2010)	35% (38%)	47% (40%)	19% (22%)
Hilary Benn would make a good leader of the Labour Party	29%	18%	53%
Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians (change from Sept 2015)	40% (-1)	37% (+6)	23% (-5)
Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media (change from Sept 2015)	37% (-)	40% (+3)	23% (-3)

Base: All respondents (n=2,049)

56% of current Labour voters agree that Jeremy Corbyn is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party, although one in six (17%) disagree. However, among people who voted Labour at the last election, the proportion agreeing falls to less than half (44%). Just 6% of current Conservative voters also agree (and 80% think David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister).
Current Labour voters are divided about whether Hilary Been would make a good leader of the party – 25% agree he would, 26% disagree. Conservative voters on the other hand agree that he would by a margin of 42% to 10%.
70% of current Labour voters agree that Jeremy Corbyn offers a positive difference from other politicians.

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
People from the EU who come to live in the UK should only receive tax credits after living here for four years	74%	12%	14%
I expect David Cameron will be able to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU so that EU citizens can only receive tax credits after living in Britain for four years	31%	37%	33%

Base: All respondents (n=2,049)

Half of Conservative voters (49%) expect David Cameron will be able to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the EU, although just 27% of Labour voters and 17% of UKIP voters think the same.

Climate change

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

The recent storms and flooding in the UK are probably a result of climate change mainly caused by human activity (change from Jan 2014)

46%

(+8)

26%

(-6)

30%

(-2)

The Government should raise taxes to pay for better flood defences

22%

55%

23%

Base: All respondents (n=2,049)

Syria

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Britain should take part in air strikes against ISIS (Da’esh) in Syria at the current time	47%	33%	20%
British troops should take part in a ground war against ISIS (Da’esh) in Syria at the current time	25%	48%	27%
There are no circumstances under which British troops should be sent to fight a ground war against ISIS (Change since last month)	32% (+7)	42% (-10)	26% (-3)

Base: All respondents (n=2,049)

Men are more likely to agree than disagree that Britain should take part in air strikes against ISIS (Da’esh) in Syria at the current time (56% to 30%). Women on the other hand are divided (39% vs 37%).
Two thirds of Conservative voters (68%) agree with air strikes, while Labour voters are more likely to disagree (51%) than agree (30%) with them.
62% of UKIP voters agree with air strikes.

Christmas

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

People generally feel under pressure to spend too much at Christmas (change from Dec 2011)

87%

(-2)

(+1)

I can only afford to pay for Christmas by using credit cards and overdrafts (change from Dec 2011)

15%

(-)

79%

(-1)

(+2)

I plan to spend less on Christmas this year than last year (change from Dec 2011)

45%

(-11)

41%

(+9)

14%

(+2)

Base: All respondents (n=2,049)

Those aged 18-24 (20%) and 35-44 (24%) are the most likely to say that they can only afford to pay for Christmas by using credit cards and overdrafts.

Basic income

	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
The government should remove all of welfare benefits and state pension paid to people and give all British citizens a flat-rate monthly payment instead	18%	53%	29%

Base: All respondents (n=2,049)

Date Published: 12 December 2015

Categories: Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Independent on Sunday & Sunday Mirror

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,049 GB adults online between 9 and 11 December 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at the ComRes website.