Evening Standard / LBC / ITV London Tonight Mayoral Poll

A survey of Londoners on behalf of the Evening Standard, LBC and ITV London Tonight.

Date Published: 25 Apr 2012

Categories: Economy | Politics | Public and communities | UK

Description

Mayoral Voting Intention: Boris has 8-point lead (up from 6 points in poll published 10 April)

Boris Johnson: 54% (+1)
Ken Livingstone: 46% (-1)
(Results following reallocation of second preference choices, after no overall winner in the first round.)

Since our last poll at the start of April, Boris has maintained his position as the frontrunner, both on first preference (45% Boris vs. 36% Ken) and also after reallocating second preferences (as per headline). In first preference votes, Ken has gone from 41% in our poll at the beginning of the month, to 36% now.

Jenny Jones and Brian Paddick are neck-and-neck with 6% and 5% of the first preference vote respectively.

Summary:

Key points about VI (see p9 for turnout-weighted tables of first preference votes and p13 for reallocated votes):
 
•    Following on from our last poll in early April, Boris has increased his lead over Ken. In April, after reallocating first preferences Boris was on 53% and Ken was on 47%.  Now the vote share is 54% and 46% respectively.  
•    In early April, Boris had a 5 point lead over Ken on first preference votes. This has now increased to a 9 point lead for Boris.
•    The same inner / outer London splits occur, with Boris ahead in outer boroughs (59% after second preference reallocated), and Ken ahead in inner London (54% after second preference reallocated). However, it is notable that Ken has slipped in his inner London stronghold, by 6 percentage points since early April (60% in early April after second preference reallocated).
•    Boris still struggles to win support among younger Londoners (aged 18-44), while Ken struggles to gain the support of those in older age brackets.
•    On first preference votes, Jenny Jones and Brian Paddick are neck-and-neck with 6% and 5% of the vote respectively.
•    When selecting second preference, Brian Paddick is the overwhelmingly most popular choice for Londoners (27%; although down from 31% in early April 2012).

Other questions:

Q4. Which, if any, of these would you say should be given priority by whomever is elected Mayor of London on 3rd May?  Please select up to three.

Keeping down the costs of public transport 63%
Ensuring there is enough affordable housing 47%
Restoring public confidence in the Metropolitan Police 38%
Getting more of the tax generated by London, spent here in London 32%
Improving social cohesion in London’s more deprived neighbourhoods 32%
Making the 2012 Olympic Games a success 16%
Standing up for the interests of London’s financial sector 13%
Promoting London internationally 8%
Getting Crossrail built 8%
None of these 1%
Don’t know 4%

•    The majority (63%) of Londoners say that keeping down the costs of public transport should be given priority by whomever is elected Mayor. This is followed by ensuring there is enough affordable housing (47%), and restoring public confidence in the Met (38%).
•    Keeping down the costs of public transport and ensuring there is enough affordable housing, are more likely to be thought of as priorities by Ken voters, than Boris voters.
•    Boris voters are more likely than Ken voters, to say that the priorities of the next Mayor should be restoring public confidence in the Met, getting more tax generated spent in London, making the Olympic Games a success and standing up for the interests of London’s financial sector.
•    Just 8% of Londoners think that a priority of the next Mayor should be getting Crossrail built, and again just 8% say the next mayor should prioritise promoting London internationally.

Summary:

Which of the three main party candidates, if any, do you feel will be MOST likely to deliver on each of the following if elected as Mayor on 3rd May?

Areas where Boris is ahead of Ken
•    Making London a better place to work (difference 4%)
•    Making London a better place to run a business (difference 23%)
•    Making London a better place to live (difference 3%)
•    Making London a better place to raise a family (difference 1%)
•    Making London cleaner and safer (difference 8%)
•    Improving London’s economy (difference 16%)
•    Making it safer to cycle in London (difference 29%)
•    Protecting the interests of the City of London (difference 30%)
•    Expanding London’s airport capacity (difference 25%)

Areas where Ken is ahead of Boris
•    Increasing the number of police on the streets of London (difference 1%)
•    Building more homes (difference 9%)

Areas where Paddick is ahead of either Ken or Boris
•    None

Making London a better place to work
Boris Johnson: 32%
Ken Livingstone:  28%
Brian Paddick: 5%
None of them: 11%
Don’t know: 24%

•    A plurality (32%) believe that Boris is the most likely of the three main candidates to make London a better place to work. This is particularly so among older respondents (44% of those aged 65+ say Boris).
•    However, 28% believe that Ken Livingstone is the most likely to do this. Younger people are more likely to say that Ken is most likely to deliver on this than older people.

Making London a better place to run a business
Boris Johnson: 43%
Ken Livingstone: 20%
Brian Paddick: 3%
None of them: 9%
Don’t know: 25%

•    Boris is considered far more likely that the other candidates to make London a better place to run a business. Two in five (43%) say Boris is most likely to do this compared to one in five (20%) who say Ken.
•    Again older respondents are more likely to say Boris is most likely to do this than younger respondents.

Making London a better place to live
Boris Johnson: 32%
Ken Livingstone: 29%
Brian Paddick: 7%
None of them : 11%
Don’t know: 20%

•     Boris leads very slightly on this issue, with Boris at (32%) of Ken (29%).
•    Those in outer London are more likely to say Boris will deliver on this issue (37%)  than Ken (24%). However, those in inner London are more likely to say Ken will deliver (37%) than Boris (26%).

Making London a better place to raise a family
Boris Johnson: 28%
Ken Livingstone:  27%
Brian Paddick: 6%
None of them: 13%
Don’t know: 25%

•    On making London a better place to raise a family, it is neck & neck between the two main candidates, with a further 25% not knowing who would be most likely to deliver.
•    Older people are more likely than younger people to say Boris is most likely to deliver on this issue.

Making London cleaner and safer
Boris Johnson: 33%
Ken Livingstone: 25%
Brian Paddick: 10%
None of them: 10%
Don’t know: 22%

•     A third of people (33%) think Boris is the most likely to deliver on this issue, with a quarter (25%) believing Ken to be the most likely.
•    Ken however, leads among those aged 35-44, with 30% saying Ken, and 26% saying  Boris.
•    Again, Ken leads among those in inner London, while Boris leads among those in outer London.

Improving London’s economy
Boris Johnson: 40%
Ken Livingstone: 24%
Brian Paddick 3%
None of them: 11%
Don’t know: 22%

•    Boris leads on this issue over Ken across the social grades, even among the lower social grades.
•    Nearly half (46%) of those in social grade AB think Boris is most likely to deliver on this, while just a quarter (25%) of this social grade say Ken.

Making it safer to cycle in London
Boris Johnson: 48%
Ken Livingstone: 19%
Brian Paddick: 4%
None of them: 8%
Don’t know: 21%

•    Nearly half of Londoners (48%) think that Boris is most likely to deliver on this, while one in five (19%) say Ken.
•    However, Ken does slightly better among inner Londoners of which 23% say Ken will deliver on this, while 42% say Boris.

Building more homes
Boris Johnson: 23%
Ken Livingstone: 32%
Brian Paddick: 5%
None of them:  11%
Don’t know: 28%

•    Ken leads over Boris on this issue, and across the social grade bands.
•    Boris has a slight lead on this issue over Ken among the over 65’s, of which 34% say Boris is most likely to deliver on building more homes, while 29% say Ken.

Protecting the interests of the City of London
Boris Johnson: 50%
Ken Livingstone: 20%
Brian Paddick: 3%
None of them:  5%
Don’t know: 21%

•    Half of Londoners (50%) say Boris is the most likely candidate  to deliver on protecting the interests of the City of London.
•    Confidence in Boris on this issue is higher among the social grade AB (56%). It is also higher among the older generations, 71% of those aged 55 to 64, and 70% of those aged 65+. This compares to 34% and 38% of those aged 18 to 24 and 25 to 34 respectively who say the same

Expanding London’s airport capacity
Boris Johnson: 39%
Ken Livingstone: 14%
Brian Paddick: 2%
None of them: 11%
Don’t know: 34%

•    Two in five (39%) Londoners say Boris is the most likely candidate  to deliver on this, where 14% say Ken.

Increasing the number of police on the streets of London
Boris Johnson: 26%
Ken Livingstone: 27%
Brian Paddick: 19%
None of them: 7%
Don’t know: 21%

•     This is an issue that Brian Paddick does comparatively better on compared to the other issues asked about.
•    Nearly one in five (19%) think Brian will deliver compared to 26% who say Boris and 27% who say Ken.
•    Ken leads over Boris on this issue for those aged under 45, while Boris leads among those aged 45+.

Thinking about the course of the London Mayoral election campaign so far, which of the three main party candidates, if any, do you feel has:

Areas where Boris is ahead of Ken
•    Given voters the greatest sense of trust (difference 9%)
•    Been most transparent about their personal tax affairs (difference 14%)
•    Had the fairest campaign (difference 7%)
•    Been the most honest with voters about what they would do in office (difference 5%)
•    Had the most attractive policies (difference 3%)
•    Fought hardest to win (difference 1%)

Areas where Ken is ahead of Boris
•    Had the most disappointing campaign (difference 14%, 4% difference from Paddick)

Areas where Paddick is ahead of either Ken or Boris
•    Been the least visible (difference 44% Ken 48% Boris)


Given voters the greatest sense of trust
Boris Johnson: 29%
Ken Livingstone: 20%
Brian Paddick: 7%
None of them: 22%
Don’t know: 22%

•    Younger people are more likely to say than older people that Ken has given the voters a sense of trust. However, older people are more likely than younger people to say that Boris has given the greatest sense of trust.

Been most transparent about their personal tax affairs
Boris Johnson: 29%
Ken Livingstone: 15%
Brian Paddick 8%
None of them: 19%
Don’t know: 29%

•    Just 15% think that Ken has been the most transparent about his tax affairs, while 29% think that Boris has been.

Had the fairest campaign
Boris Johnson: 23%
Ken Livingstone: 16%
Brian Paddick: 13%
None of them: 16%
Don’t know: 32%

•    Brian Paddick does fairly well on this with 13%, compared to 16% who say Ken. A quarter of people think Boris has had the fairest campaign.

Been the most honest with voters about what they would do in office
Boris Johnson: 27%
Ken Livingstone: 22%
Brian Paddick: 9%
None of them: 17%
Don’t know: 25%

•    Ken leads on this issue among the younger generations while Boris leads on this among the older generations.

Had the most attractive policies
Boris Johnson: 32%
Ken Livingstone:  29%
Brian Paddick: 5%
None of them: 12%
Don’t know: 23%

•    Again, Ken leads on this issue among the younger generations while Boris leads on this among the older generations.

Fought hardest to win
Boris Johnson: 29%
Ken Livingstone: 28%
Brian Paddick: 4%
None of them: 9%
Don’t know: 31%

•    It is neck and neck between the two main candidates over who has fought the hardest to win. However, Ken leads on this issue among the younger generations while Boris leads on this among the older generations.

Had the most disappointing campaign
Boris Johnson: 12%
Ken Livingstone: 26%
Brian Paddick: 22%
None of them: 8%
Don’t know: 33%

•    A quarter of Londoners say that Ken has had the most disappointing campaign of the three main candidates. This is true across the social grades.
•    Paddick is second overall among the three main candidates for having the most disappointing campaign with 22% saying so.

Been the least visible
Boris Johnson: 6%
Ken Livingstone: 10%
Brian Paddick: 54%
None of them: 9%
Don’t know: 22%

•    The majority (54%) of Londoners say that Paddick has been the least visible in this campaign, while just 10% say Livingstone and 6% say Johnson.
•    63% of Lib Dem voters in the 2010 General Election say that Paddick has been the least visible.

OTHER FINDINGS:

•    While a half of Londoners (50%), agree that the South East of England needs extra airport capacity, just 40% support a new airport in the Thames estuary and 42% support a third  runway at Heathrow airport.
•    While 61% of men believe the South East needs extra airport capacity, 39% of women agree.
•    63% of Boris voters agree that the South East needs extra airport capacity, compared with 48% of Ken voters. However, just half (47%) of Boris voters agree that they support a third runway at Heathrow, while 54% agree that they support a new airport in the Thames estuary.
•    A plurality (45%) agree that London’s economic competitiveness is in danger is the airport capacity is not increased, 28% do not think it is.
•    Just 32% say they would be willing to take fewer flights in order to improve the capacity of London’s airports, while 43% disagree.

Methodology note:

ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,024 London adults online between 23rd and 25th April 2012.  Data were weighted to be demographically representative and by likely turnout and past vote recall.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.