ComRes Economic Indicators MPs Survey

 

ComRes interviewed 150 MPs (55 Conservatives, 77 Labour, 10 Lib Dems and 8 other) from 3-24 March 2014.  Data were weighted to be representative of the House of Commons by party and regional constituency distribution. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Date Published: 14 Apr 2014

Categories: Economy | Policy Makers | Politics | UK

Description

COMRES SURVEY OF MPs REVEALS CONFIDENCE OVER GROWTH & UNEMPLOYMENT IN RUN-UP TO 2015 ELECTION

 

A new survey of 150 MPs, published today, reveals an upbeat mood among MPs over the coming 12 months until the 2015 General Election.  The research, conducted during March, found three-quarters of MPs (73%) expect economic growth to improve and two-thirds (66%) expect unemployment to fall over the coming year.

However, while large proportions expect no change to inflation or interest rates, today’s news on inflation may be a surprise to the 39% of Labour MPs who expect that measure to worsen over the coming year.

As might be expected, Coalition Party MPs are the most optimistic.  Ninety percent of Conservative MPs and 75% of Liberal Democrats expect economic growth to continue to improve, in contrast to only 50% of Labour MPs.

On inflation the picture is more mixed.  By a ratio of three to one Conservatives expect it to improve rather than worsen and Liberal Democrats are again fairly positive but Labour MPs are optimistic by a ratio of more than five to one.  Some 57% overall expect inflation to remain unchanged.

The balance of views for interest rates is the most negative of all, with 29% overall expecting a hike before the next Election.  Again, Labour MPs are the most pessimistic with 37% expecting interest rates to increase compared to only three percent expecting a further reduction.  But two-thirds of MPs expect no change in rate.

Labour MPs are by far the most pessimistic on the prospects for unemployment over the next 12 months.  While 87% of Conservatives and 84% of Liberal Democrats expect it to improve, only 35% of their Labour colleagues share their optimism – but only 10% expect it actually to worsen.

 

Full data are below:

 Q.  Do you expect each of the following to improve, stay the same or get worse?

 

                                                All       Con    Lab     LD

                                                %         %         %         %

Economic growth

Improve                                 73        90        50        75

Stay the same                        22        8          41        25

Get worse                              5          2          9          -

 

                                                All       Con    Lab     LD

                                                %         %         %         %

Inflation

Improve                                 20        32        7          22

Stay the same                       57        55        54        70

Get worse                              22        11        39        8

DK                                          1          2          -           -

 

                                                All       Con    Lab     LD

                                                %         %         %         %

Interest rates

Improve (=lower)                      4          5          3          -

Stay the same                          65        66        57        76

Get worse (=higher)                 29        26        37        24

DK                                             2          2          3          -

 

                                                All       Con    Lab     LD

                                                %         %         %         %

Unemployment

Improve                                 66        87        35        84

Stay the same                       29        11        55        16

Get worse                               4          -           10        -

DK                                          1          2          -           -

 

 

 

METHODOLOGY: ComRes interviewed 150 MPs (55 Conservatives, 77 Labour, 10 Lib Dems and 8 other) from 3-24 March 2014.  Data were weighted to be representative of the House of Commons by party and regional constituency distribution. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.