August 2015 Daily Mail Political Poll

Poll for Daily Mail on the Labour Leadership race.

A new ComRes poll for the Daily Mail shows the extent of the challenge facing Labour’s new leader, with none of the four candidates inspiring a broad level of support. This comes as the Conservatives reach their highest poll rating in more than half a decade.

Jeremy Corbyn (22%), Andy Burnham (22%) and Yvette Cooper (21%) all have similar proportions of the public saying that they would vote for Labour if they were leader. While Mr Corbyn and Ms Kendall have the highest levels of people saying they would not vote for the Labour Party if they were leader (both 58%).

However, Mr Burnham has fewer people than the other candidates saying that they would not vote for Labour if he was leader, leaving him with the best net score (-32, vs -36 for both Ms Cooper and Mr Corbyn, and -40 for Ms Kendall).

Among Labour voters only, Jeremy Corbyn receives the highest number saying they would not vote for the party at a General Election if he were leader (26%), while Andy Burnham receives the highest number saying that they would vote for the party if he were leader (60%).

Andy Burnham has marginally the highest proportion of the public saying he has what it takes to be Prime Minster, although only one in four Britons hold this opinion (24%). At least three in ten Labour voters say each candidate doesn’t have what it takes to be Prime Minister (Andy Burnham is the lowest with 30%).

The poll reveals the Conservatives have a 14 point lead, having moved up to 42%, the party’s highest vote share since January 2010. Labour remain on 28%. UKIP drop into single figures (9%) for the first time in more than two and a half years.

Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling, said: “Jeremy Corbyn continues to be the marmite candidate, dividing opinion. Among his own party supporters he is the candidate that more than others they would not vote for. Perhaps the biggest concern for Labour is that significant numbers of their own supporters have doubts about the capabilities of each candidate. The scale of Labour’s challenge is made clear in this poll with the Conservatives achieving their highest level of support recorded in this ComRes series since January 2010.”

Full results

Labour leader

As you may know the Labour Party is in the process of electing a leader. Thinking about the candidates to be leader of the Labour Party, would you vote for Labour if…was the leader?

	Would vote for	Would not vote for	Don’t know	NET:
Andy Burnham	22%	54%	24%	-32
Yvette Cooper	21%	57%	23%	-36
Liz Kendall	18%	58%	24%	-40
Jeremy Corbyn	22%	58%	20%	-36

Base: GB adults (n=1,001).

Andy Burnham has the highest proportion of Labour voters saying they will vote for the party if he were leader (60%, vs 57% for Cooper, 53% for Kendall and 57% for Corbyn).
Corbyn has the highest proportion of Labour voters saying they wouldn’t vote for the party if he were leader (26%, vs 20% for Burnham, 22% for Cooper and 24% for Kendall).
Burnham also scores particularly well among the crucial “silver vote” – 23% of people aged 65+ say they would vote for Labour if he were leader, compared to 19% for Cooper, 16% for Corbyn and 15% for Kendall.

For each of the four Labour leadership candidates please tell me whether you think they have what it takes to be a Prime Minister or not.

	Has what it takes	Does not have what it takes	Don’t know	NET:
Andy Burnham	24%	48%	28%	-24%
Yvette Cooper	23%	50%	27%	-27%
Liz Kendall	16%	55%	30%	-39%
Jeremy Corbyn	23%	52%	25%	-29%

Base: GB adults (n=1,001).

Conservative voters are more likely to say that Mr Burnham (23%) and Ms Cooper (22%) have what it takes to be Prime Minister than say the same for Mr Corbyn (12%) and Ms Kendall (12%).
When likelihood to vote is taken into consideration, Mr Burnham loses his lead – among just those likely to vote, 29% say Ms Cooper has what it takes to be Prime Minister, while 28% say the same of Mr Burnham.

Voting intention

The Conservatives are on 42%, the party’s highest vote share for more than half a decade (the last time the Conservatives were on 42% was in January 2010). The party’s lead stands at 14 points with Labour remaining on 28%.

UKIP are on 9% – just a point ahead of the Liberal Democrats and the first time they have been in single digits in a ComRes telephone poll since February 2013.

Con 42% (+2)

Lab 28% (NC)

LD 8% (+1)

UKIP 9% (-1)

Green 6% (+1)

SNP 5% (NC)

Other 3% (NC)

Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Date Published: 25th August 2015

Categories: GB | Politics | Voting Intention

Client: Daily Mail

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,001 GB adults by telephone between 21st and 23rd August 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules