Final EU referendum voting intention survey for The Daily Mail and ITV News.
- With less than 24 hours until polling day, Remain has extended its lead in the EU Referendum race. In the final ComRes telephone poll across the UK, Remain are on 48%, Leave on 42% and 11% undecided.
- After don’t knows are accounted for, Remain would lead 54% to 46%.
- More than four in five voters (82%) report that they have definitely made up their mind before the referendum on Thursday, while 17% say that they may still change their mind. This level of certainty is slightly higher than in the General Election in 2015 (80% vs 20%).
- The reputation of key politicians seem to have been affected by ongoing campaigning for the EU referendum. The number of voters citing David Cameron as important in their decision has fallen from 34% in May to 26% now. This puts him level with Boris Johnson, who also falls from 32% to 25%.
- Claims by the Leave campaign about what would happen if Britain voted to leave the EU seem to have had more cut-through among UK adults than claims made by the Remain side. In particular, the main Leave claim that ‘we can take back control’ has had the greatest impact, with 44% saying it made them more likely to vote Leave (vs 38% who say it made no difference). Overall however UK adults are generally most likely to say that claims on both sides of the campaign have had no difference as to which way they will vote this Thursday.
- Only a third of Britons (33%) think that David Cameron would be the best person to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal from the EU as Prime Minister in the event of Brexit, though this is higher than any other potential figure tested.
- Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, said: “As anticipated, the final campaign week has seen a boost for the status quo. But if Remain win, as now appears likely, it will be a victory lacking enthusiasm. Support for Remain is broad and shallow, with Remain voters responding most to warnings about the negative economic risks of voting to Leave. In contrast, support for Leave is deeper but narrower. The burning question now is whether Remain’s win will be of a sufficient margin to settle the issue of EU membership ‘for a generation’, as David Cameron put it. The visceral mood of the campaign, the negative messaging and the likely closeness of the outcome all make it unlikely that this is the end.”
Findings in Detail
- At the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, how will you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”
|All UK adults (turnout weighted)||Those expressing a voting intention & turnout weighted|
|Remain||48% (+2)||54% (+3)|
|Leave||42% (-3)||46% (-3)|
|Don’t know||11% (+2)||–|
Base: UK adults (n=1,032). Changes since the last ComRes telephone poll for the Sun (9th-13th June). Those expressing a voting intention weighted and don’t knows reallocated by which they think would be better for economy) (n=955).
- With support for the Remain side having collapsed in ComRes’ poll last week to just a one point lead, there has been a slight shift back towards the Remain lead seen throughout the campaign: after likelihood to vote is taken into account, 48% say that they will vote Remain, 42% say they will vote Leave and 11% don’t know.
- Once results have been weighted based on those who express a voting intention and undecideds are reallocated on whether they think leaving or remaining in the EU would be better for the economy, Remain has a four point lead over Leave (54% vs 46%).
- As this is the final poll before the vote, these figure are for the UK (including Northern Ireland), providing a genuine reflection of the likely national outcome.
Date Published: 22nd June 2016
Categories: Elections | EU Referendum | Politics | Public and communities | UK | Voting Intention
Client: ITV News / Daily Mail
ComRes interviewed 1,032 UK adults aged 18+ from 17th-22nd June 2016. Data were weighted to be representative of all UK adults aged 18+. ComRes sets quotas during fieldwork and weights the raw data on the following demographic information: age, gender, government office region, social grade and whether those in work are employed in the public or private sector. The sample includes both landline and mobile telephone numbers. Additionally the data is weighted by past vote recall. The voting intention figures are then modelled using the ComRes Likely Electorate Model to take account for known turnout patterns. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.