SNP has ‘stemmed the bleeding’ in Scotland but Labour could be within touching distance of 30 MPs – Savanta for the Scotsman
Westminster voting intention: Labour 37% (=); SNP 33% (=); Conservative 17% (=); Liberal Democrat 7% (=); Other 5% (-1)
Holyrood constituency voting intention: SNP 35% (=); Labour 34% (-1); Conservative 17% (-1); Liberal Democrat 8% (=); Other 6% (+1)
Holyrood list voting intention: SNP 30% (+4); Labour 29% (-3); Conservative 18% (=); Green 10% (-1); Liberal Democrat 10% (=); Other 4% (=)
1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May 2024 (all change from 3-8 May 2024)
31 May 2024 – The Scottish Labour Party “could be within touching distance” of 30 MPs, according to the first Scottish opinion polling from Savanta for the Scotsman since the UK general election was announced.
The poll, conducted in the past week (24-28 May) suggests that John Swinney has managed to halt the SNP’s decline since he became First Minister, with Labour (37%), the SNP (33%), the Conservatives (17%) and the Liberal Democrats (7%) unchanged from early May.
The current state of Westminster voting intention (VI) would lead to a radical transformation of the current electoral map in Scotland, if these figures were replicated at a general election. According to seat modelling by Professor Sir John Curtice, Labour would be on course for 28 Scottish MPs from their current two, while the SNP would plummet to just 18 seats. Both the Liberal Democrats (5 MPs) and the Conservatives (6 MPs) would broadly hold steady in terms of Scottish representation in the House of Commons.
The SNP (35%) has managed to hold at a similar level to Labour (34%) in the Holyrood Constituency voting intention, as well as recover (30%, up 4) in the Holyrood list vote.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta says,
“Our first poll since John Swinney was confirmed as Scotland’s First Minister suggests that he has managed to stem the SNP’s bleeding. In a sense this is positive news for the SNP, but is also a likely consequence of him simply not being Humza Yousaf.”
“There’s plenty of campaign yet to go, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the bigger picture – Labour held one Scottish MP after the last general election, and our poll suggests they could be within touching distance of 30. Starmer’s focus on Scotland looks like it may well be paying off, even if this stalemate holds until election day.”