Confidence increased significantly for established businesses with a turnover of up to £1m, increased slightly for start-ups, and remained stable for larger businesses with a turnover of over £1m
The Confidence Index for smaller established businesses increased by +4 points to 42 in Q3 2024. New start-ups also saw an increase of +5 points, reaching 41 in Q3 2024 compared to Q2 2024, though this increase was not statistically significant.
Larger businesses, with annual sales above £1m, have maintained a stable Confidence Index from the previous quarter and continue to be the most confident group with an Index of 47.
Confidence increased in all geographical regions
London is now the most confident region with a confidence index of 44, after a +6 point increase this quarter. This is followed by the southeast regions with an index of 43 in Q3 2024, after an increase by +6 points.
In joint third position are the North/North West and Midlands/East regions, both with a Confidence Index of 41. Although both regions increased by +1 point this quarter, they fell from first place in Q2 2024 to third position.
Following, in fourth position and with a score of 40 is Wales/South West which has increased by +6 points in Q3 2024.
Scotland is in last position for this quarter. It has increased by +1 point and its score is now 38.
An Index of less than 50 means more businesses are pessimistic, rather than optimistic, about the current state of the economy.
Confidence increases in 7 industry sectors
At Q3 2024, confidence increased in 7 of the 9 industry sectors (Education, Business Services, Agriculture, Other Services, Wholesale, Production, and Transport) and confidence decreased for Accommodation and remained stable for Construction.
The greatest increase was in the Education sector, with an increase of +10 points, gaining first place this quarter with a score of 47.
Business Services moved up to second place this quarter after a +5 point confidence increase, with a score of 44.
Agriculture and Other Services both saw an increase of +7 points, placing them in third and fourth positions, respectively, with scores of 43 and 41.
Wholesale, Production, Construction, and Transport all received a Confidence Index of 40. Wholesale increased by +3 points, Production increased by +4 points, Transport increased by +1 point, and Construction remained stable from Q2 2024.
Accommodation has moved to the last position with a decline of 4 points, bringing the Confidence Index to 36. It is the only industry that saw a decline in the Confidence Index.
Amongst start-ups and small businesses, Business Confidence increased for all age groups
Looking at start-ups and established businesses with a turnover of £0-2m, Business Confidence increased for younger business owners (up to 34-year-olds) by +2 point to 39.
The scores for those aged 35-64 also increased by +5 points to 41 for this quarter.
Those aged 65 and over remain the most confident group also for this quarter, with a score of 43 which is +1 point higher than last quarter. However, all the increases are not statistically significant.
Commenting on the findings Helen Davey, Director at Savanta, said:
“July 4th saw the first general election victory for Labour since 2005, ending the Conservatives’ 14-year holding of office. Overall confidence at Q3 has seen a significant improvement, although as expected, not to the levels we saw after Boris Johnson’s victory. With the very recent Autumn budget described as a budget to ‘rebuild’ Britain, we will have to wait until the end of Q4 to find out what impact this has.”
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About Market Vue Business Confidence
Quarterly findings are from Savanta’s Market Vue Business Confidence programme conducted among 2913 GB businesses from start-ups to companies with £1bn turnover, surveyed between 24th June 2024 – 18th September 2024. Indices are mean scores based on a scale of ‘extremely positive’ (100), ‘fairly positive’ (75), ‘neither positive nor negative’ (50), ‘fairly negative’ (25) and ‘extremely negative’ (0), for the question “How do you feel about the current health of the UK economy?”
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