The MarketVue Business Confidence Index from Savanta – GB saw its score increase this quarter by 1 point from 29 in Q4 2025 to 30 in Q1 2026, though remaining in a low position of general economic confidence.
In Q1 2026, confidence increased significantly for Large Businesses of £1m+ turnover at 34 (+3 points). Established Businesses with turnover up to £1m at 29 (+1 point) and Start-ups at 34 (+5 points) also saw slight increases.
Business confidence increased in all regions in Q1 2026, other than Midlands / East which stayed the same. The biggest significant change was within the Wales / South West region (+4 points).
There is not a large spread in scores between regions, with the South East region appearing to be slightly more positive with an index score of 32.
Confidence increased in 6 of 9 industry sectors after drops in the previous quarter. Seeing significant and the biggest increases were the Education (37, +17 points), Transport (38, +12 points) and Accommodation (30, +6 points) sectors. Construction, Business Services and Other Services also saw small, albeit insignificant, increases in Q1 2026.
Production and Agriculture saw slight decreases, whilst Wholesale recorded no quarterly change in Confidence.
Confidence has increased for all age groups in Q1 2026, with over 35s recording significant quarterly changes.
Commenting on the findings Helen Davey, Director at Savanta, said:
“Given recent global tensions – not least the impact of the US-Iran war on the world’s economy – it may be surprising to see that Business Confidence has increased in Great Britain in Q1 2026. Whilst it is certainly positive relief to not see a further drop, it is important to note that overall confidence in the UK economy remains low in what has been a continued stagnation since Q4 2024.
Perhaps the most notable movement this quarter is the significant increases to the Transport and Education industry sectors, both recorded as the most optimistic sectors, respectively. In both sectors we have seen announcements of targeted government investment in the UK which may have boosted future outlook.
In January, the government made a £45bn Northern Powerhouse Rail announcement, aimed at reviving economic growth and maximising the potential of the UK’s fastest growing city in Manchester. March also saw the government publish an update on its infrastructure pipeline covering £718bn of investment over the next decade.
From an education perspective, the government has pledged more funding to enhance this space too with £4bn to improve special educational needs and disabilities (Send) support within schools in England as well as a major employment drive aimed to “unlock 200,000 new jobs and apprenticeships” for young people, backed by £1bn.
Whilst these are promising signs that may contribute to further increases in Confidence, the derailing effects of war in the Middle East still loom – as seen by recent surges in oil prices and disruption to the supply chain. This will be worth monitoring in the coming months.”
Quarterly findings are from Savanta’s MarketVue Business Confidence programme conducted among 2562 GB businesses from start-ups to companies with £1bn turnover, surveyed between 2nd January 2026 – 23rd March 2026.
Indices are mean scores based on a scale of ‘extremely positive’ (100), ‘fairly positive’ (75), ‘neither positive nor negative’ (50), ‘fairly negative’ (25) and ‘extremely negative’ (0), for the question “How do you feel about the current health of the UK economy?”
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