Poll of voters living in the 50 most marginal Conservative-held Labour target seats for ITV News
COMRES / ITV NEWS POLL: LABOUR AHEAD BY THREE IN KEY TORY-HELD BATTLEGROUND SEATS
The latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has studied the fifty most marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour were second at the last election, and results show that Labour lead the Conservatives by three points across these seats. Labour currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with the Conservatives on 37%.
This represents a swing of 3.5 points from the Conservatives to Labour, and will boost Ed Miliband and his “happy warriors” on the Labour campaign team as they enter the final days of canvassing the electorate. If these results were replicated on election day and if there were a uniform swing across all these constituencies, it would see Labour win forty of the fifty seats.
However, there are signs that recent Conservative attacks on the potential role of the SNP in a future Labour government are cutting through – around half of voters in these key swing seats (47%) say that the SNP should be kept out of a UK-wide government, and three in five (58%) say that they are worried about the influence of the SNP if it supports a Labour government after May 7th.
This narrative provides a source of hope for the Conservatives in the final few weeks of the campaign, with three in ten of those currently intending to vote Labour (28%) saying that it is important to keep the SNP out of the UK-wide government. Seven in ten of those currently intending to vote Conservative (71%) say the same.
While most voters in these key seats (73%) have made up their mind, more than a quarter of voters in these key target seats (27%) saying that they may still change their mind and all is still to play for.
Andrew Hawkins, ComRes Chairman, said: “There are crumbs of comfort for both main parties. For the Conservatives there is enough queasiness about Labour doing a deal with the SNP to shift potential votes, and for Labour there is the comfort of overtaking their main rivals across these key marginals. But UKIP’s presence shows the havoc the Party is likely to wreak next week on David Cameron’s chances of remaining in office, and Labour should be asking some serious questions about why they are benefiting so little from the collapse of the Liberal Democrats.”
“The one encouragement to emerge is that 75% of people say they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, suggesting that in marginals, if not more widely, turnout could be fairly high”.
The fifty seats where fieldwork was conducted are: North Warwickshire, Thurrock, Hendon, Cardiff North, Sherwood, Stockton South, Broxtowe, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Amber Valley, Waveney, Wolverhampton South West, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Carlisle, Stroud, Weaver Vale, Lincoln, Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport, Dewsbury, Warrington South, Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Brentford and Isleworth, Hove, Enfield North, Hastings and Rye, Ipswich, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Gloucester, Northampton North, Bury North, Kingswood, Erewash, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, City of Chester, Croydon Central, Worcester, Keighley, Wirral West, Cannock Chase, Harrow East, Loughborough, Warwick and Leamington, South Swindon, Ealing Central and Acton, Pendle, Stevenage, Elmet and Rothwell, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.
Date Published: 29th April 2015
Categories: GE2015 | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention
Client: ITV News
ComRes interviewed 1,004 adults living in the fifty most marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour were second in the 2010 General Election. A full list of these seats is included below. Fieldwork took place by telephone between 24th and 26th April 2015. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with data weighted to be demographically representative of all adults living in these constituencies. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.