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Sunday Mirror + IoS Political Poll

Voting intention and political attitudes conducted for Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday published 16 January 2011.

Date Published: 15 Jan 2011

Categories: Energy | Media | Politics | Public and communities | Technology & Telecoms | UK


Yes Vote in AV Referendum Leads by 6 Points

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and The Independent on Sunday tomorrow asked the official question drafted by the Electoral Commission:  At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons.  Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

Yes               36%
No                30%
Don't know    34%

(Answers were weighted by likelihood to vote.)

A further question suggests that the Yes vote could increase: I could be persuaded to support changing the voting system in the forthcoming referendum in May when I have heard more about the arguments for and against

Agree:              61%
Disagree:         18%
Don’t know:      21%

 Among people who don’t know how they would vote in the referendum question above, 60% agree that they could be persuaded to vote ‘yes’ and only 7% disagree. If we add these potential supporters of AV to those who already do agree, the Yes vote climbs to 58%, assuming the No vote remains at 27%, and don’t knows decline to 15%.

Labour lead strengthens as Lib Dems slump to record low

Voting intention figures for a general election show the lowest Lib Dem figure recorded by ComRes since it started polling in 2004:

Con       36% (-1)
Lab        40% (+1)
LD          10% (-1)
Others   14% (+1)
Change since last online ComRes poll for IoS/SM 19 December.
Electoral Calculus shows a Labour majority of 40 and the Lib Dems reduced to just 14 seats.
Additional Questions:

At a time of major public spending cuts the Government should be much tougher in clawing back bankers’ bonuses through the tax system
Agree: 81%
Disagree: 9%
Don’t know: 10%
A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting people’s jobs
Agree: 30%
Disagree: 38%
Don’t know: 32%
Only 13% of Lib Dem voters agree.
Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour party
                        Now                  Dec
Agree:              22%                  17%
Disagree           35%                  32%
Don’t know:      43%                  50%
Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, commented: "Ed M is not effectively reaching across party divides either: 20% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 agree, 30% disagree.  When we compare this with the fact that 35% of 2010 Lib Dem voters would now switch to Labour, it appears that this support for Labour is despite Ed M’s leadership, not because of it."
Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats
                        Now                  Dec
Agree:              28%                  26%
Disagree:          49%                  49%
Don’t know:      23%                  25%
David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister
                        Now                  Dec
Agree:              38%                  38%
Disagree:          43%                  41%
Don’t know:      19%                  21%
"Current Lib Dem voters are fairly positive, on 50% agreement compared to 30% who disagree. Perhaps this offers comfort to those arguing for Coalition candidates in some seats?"
Methodology note:
ComRes interviewed 2,006 GB adults online 12th-13th January 2011.  Data were weighted by past vote recall.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
For turnout weighted AV question results email [email protected]

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