ITV News EU Referendum Poll

Big rise in those who want Britain to leave EU

The lead for “Remain” has narrowed to eight points in a new ComRes poll for ITV News. 49% of Britons now say they would vote to remain in the EU if a referendum was held tomorrow, compared to 41% who say they will vote for leave. This eight point lead for “Remain” is down from 19 points in ComRes’s January poll for the Daily Mail.

The poll comes at the start of a crucial week for the Prime Minister, culminating in an EU summit in Brussels where leaders will try to agree a deal over Britain’s renegotiated membership of the EU. ComRes’s last poll on the referendum was done before David Cameron’s renegotiation deal with Donald Tusk was announced. At the time, 54% backed remaining in the EU and 36% supported leaving.

This new poll for ITV News suggests 42% of those stating an opinion may still change their mind before the referendum. Both camps have similar proportions of undecided voters, with 42% of those saying they will vote “Remain” and 41% “Leave” saying they may still change their mind.

The poll also suggests that the most important issue voters say will determine how they vote is control over the number of EU migrants entering Britain, which 53% say will be one of their three most important considerations. This is followed by control over Britain’s laws (43%) and the economy (38%) and national security (38%). Among those who currently say they would vote to remain in the EU, 47% said the economy was the most important issue, while 76% of those who back leaving said controlling migrant numbers was.

Findings in detail:

Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), how would you vote on the following question? “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?”

Remain: 49%

Leave: 41%

Don’t know: 10%

Q: Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind?

Definitely decided 57%

May change mind 42%

Don’t know 1%

Base: GB adults who express a voting intention preference (n=999).

Q: Thinking about the referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, which three of the following will be the most important to you in deciding which way to vote?

Control over the number of EU migrants entering Britain 53%

Control over Britain’s laws 43%

The economy 38%

National security 38%

Benefits for EU migrants 26%

The ability of the UK and EU citizens to live and work across the EU 23%

British influence on the global stage 19%

Uncertainty of leaving the EU 12%

None of these 1%

Don’t know 3%

Base: GB adults (n=1,105).

Date Published: 15th February 2016

Categories: Elections | EU Referendum | Politics | Public and communities

Client: ITV News

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 1,105 British aged 18+ by telephone, from 11^th-14^th February. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults aged 18+. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.