IoS/Sunday Mirror February 2016 Political Poll

Voting intention poll plus Favourability Index and questions on the EU referendum

**MUST CREDIT COMRES, INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY, SUNDAY MIRROR**

LITTLE CONFIDENCE DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN FROM THE EU

Conservatives take 14-point lead (up 3 since last month)
Labour at 27%, equalling record low since before 2010 election (Labour were also on 27% in November 2015)
By margin of nearly three to one, voters expect David Cameron will not get a good deal for Britain in his renegotiation of EU membership

EU MEMBERSHIP RENEGOTIATION

· Despite his recent pledges, the public are not confident the Prime Minister will get a good deal for Britain in his renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU (21% expect he will get a good deal v 58% who expect he will not).

· Conservative voters are as sceptical as the wider public on the renegotiation (33% expect a good deal v 50% who do not expect a good deal).

THE UK ECONOMY & THE EU

· Opinion is divided on whether Britain’s economy is better off being part of the EU (39%) or better off if the UK left the EU (36%).

· Similarly, there is no consensus when asking about personal attitudes towards the EU; 27% of the public say they would be personally better off if Britain left compared to 29% if Britain remained. However, pointing to the lack of awareness on the issue, almost half of the British public say they don’t know if they would be personally better off if Britain left or remained part of the EU (45%).

THE EU + MIGRATION

· In contrast to opinions on the economy and the EU, there is a significant split on migrants coming from Calais. British adults are more likely to say that Britain would be able to better manage migrants trying to enter from Calais if it left the EU (47% v 29% if Britain remained part of the EU).

FAVOURABILITY INDEX

· In the first ComRes ‘Favourability Index’ poll of 2016, Jeremy Corbyn remains the politician with the worst ratings (21% favourable v 50% unfavourable).

· Perhaps linked to negative expectations in securing a good deal in Britain’s EU membership renegotiations, favourability towards David Cameron has decreased from last year (38% favourable in November v 31% now).

· A similar proportion of British adults are unfavourable towards David Cameron (48%), as they are to Jeremy Corbyn (50%) and Nigel Farage (49%).

o However, the Prime Minister continues to have a significantly higher net favourability score than the leader of the opposition (-17 v -29), thanks to the Prime Minister’s higher favourability ratings.

· By party, the Conservatives are viewed most favourably by British adults (32%), while UKIP have the highest unfavourability rating of 50%.

Findings in detail:

The EU: Renegotiation, Economy and Migration

Q: For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own opinion?

Option 1	%	%	Option 2	Don’t knowKnow
I expect David Cameron will get a good deal for Britain in his renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU	21%	58%	I expect David Cameron will notget a good deal for Britain in his renegotiation of Britain’s membership of the EU	22%
Britain’s economy is better off for being part of the EU	39%	36%	Britain’s economy would be better off if the UK left the EU	25%
I would be personally better off if Britain left the EU	27%	29%	I would be personally better off if Britain remained a part of the EU	45%
If Britain remains a part of the EU, it would be better able to manage migrants trying to come into the country through Calais	29%	47%	If Britain left the EU, it would be better able to manage migrants trying to come into the country through Calais	24%

Base: GB adults (n=2,018).

· A majority of Labour voters say that Britain’s economy is better off being part of the EU (53%). In contrast, Conservative voters are split on the issue (38% say better off in v 40% better off out).

· Conservative voters are also split on whether they would benefit personally if Britain left the EU (28% v 25% remain).

· The vast majority of Labour and UKIP voters expect the Prime Minister not to get a good deal in EU membership renegotiations (63% Labour; 83% UKIP).

· Conservative voters are twice as likely to say that Britain would better manage migrants trying to come through from Calais if it left the EU, than if the UK remained in the EU (54% v 28%). Labour voters are divided on the issue (39% v 35%).

Favourability Index

Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of each of the following?

Politician / Party	Favourable	Unfavourable	Neither	Don’t know	NET (Favourable – Unfavourable)
Boris Johnson	40% (-4)	30%	25%	5%	+10
David Cameron	31% (-7)	48%	17%	3%	-17
Nigel Farage*	24% (+2)	49%	21%	6%	-25
George Osborne	21% (-4)	45%	25%	9%	-24
Jeremy Corbyn	21% (-1)	50%	21%	7%	-29
Iain Duncan Smith***	16%	38%	32%	15%	-22
Michael Gove**	9% (NC)	38%	30%	23%	-29
John McDonnell	6% (NC)	23%	28%	43%	-17
The Conservative Party*	32% (+4)	46%	17%	5%	-14
The Labour Party*	27% (-2)	48%	20%	5%	-21
UKIP*	24% (NC)	50%	20%	6%	-26
The Liberal Democrats*	16% (+2)	43%	35%	7%	-27

Base: GB adults (n=2,018). Net scores and figures in brackets are tracked from 20^th November 2015 (GB adults, n=2,067) and 17^th September 2015 (GB adults, n=2,015). *These figures are tracked from 13^th March 2015 (n=2,002). **These figures are tracked from 15^th June 2014. ***This is the first time Iain Duncan Smith has been listed in the ComRes Favourability index.

· Similar proportions of the public say they are favourable towards UKIP (24%) as they are to Labour (27%).

· Among the voting public*, net favourability towards the Conservative party increases to -8 (from -14), and further decreases towards Labour to -29 (from -21).

· Less than three quarters of British adults who voted for Labour at the 2015 General Election say they have a favourable view towards the party now (72%). This compares to 77% of those who voted for the Conservatives.

· While more than half of Labour voters view Jeremy Corbyn favourably (56%, an increase of 3 points from November), four in five (79%) of Conservative voters view David Cameron favourably (a decrease of 6 points from November).

· Boris Johnson remains Britain’s most popular politician, and the only one with a positive net favourability score of +10. However, this has decreased slightly from +17 in November.

· Among Conservative voters, Boris Johnson is viewed more favourably than the Chancellor, George Osborne (net score of +57 v +37). (However, this does not necessarily translate into whom Conservative voters expect to be the better Prime Minister see October 2015 poll on Conservative Leaders).

· Nigel Farage continues to be a divisive figure among the British public; both his favourability and unfavourability scores are amongst the highest of all politicians tested (24% favourable v 49% unfavourable).

· Nigel Farage has an 80% favourability rating among UKIP voters – the highest of any of the politicians tested within each of their parties respectively.

· Michael Gove (-2) and John McDonnell (-1) are the only politicians to have a negative favourability score among supporters within their own parties.

Voting intention

The Conservatives have increased their lead over Labour to 14 points, an increase of 3 points from January.

Con 41% (+1)

Lab 27% (-2)

LD 9% (+2)

UKIP 15% (-1)

Green 3% (NC)

SNP 5% (+1)

Other 1% (NC)

Pzzzz

Date Published: 13th February 2016

Categories: Elections | EU Referendum | Voting Intention

Client: Independent on Sunday / Sunday Mirror

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,018 GB adults online between the 10th and 12th February 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.