Independent / Sunday Mirror Political Poll October 2016

Poll for Independent and Sunday Mirror on Trump, Clinton, EU, Blair, Corbyn, May

BRITISH PUBLIC SPLIT ON BLAIR’S RETURN, SEE TRUMP AS DANGEROUS

A new ComRes poll for the Independent and Sunday Mirror shows that the British public is split over whether Labour has more chance of winning a general election if Tony Blair or Jeremy Corbyn were leader (36% vs 35%).

However, two thirds of Britons say that Donald Trump is dangerous (67%) and 40% say that he is increasing divisions in society.

Government direction

Britons are more likely to say that the Government should prioritise getting favourable trade deals with EU countries when negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU than think it should prioritise reducing immigration (49% vs 39%)
Twice as many older Britons as younger Britons say that the government should prioritise reducing immigration (48% vs 25%) over fair trade deals.
Almost half of the British public say that Theresa May’s Government is right to give up the target of balancing the Government’s budget by 2020 (46%), while around a third (34%) say that Theresa May’s government should continue to target balancing the Government’s budget by 2020.

Syria

40% of Britons say that the UK should nottry to enforce a ‘no fly zone’ in Syria, while 30% say that the UK should.
Britons are equally split over whether the situation in Syria would be better or worse now if Britain and other Western allies had used military force in 2013 (31% in each case).
The British public is much more likely to say that the UK should notsend soldiers to take action against Syria than that the UK should (63% vs 17%).

Party leaders

Britons are more than twice as likely to say that Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than that Jeremy Corbyn would (57% vs 23%) – this is a 3 percentage point increase from July 2016 for Jeremy Corbyn.

Politicians

22% of Britons say that Jeremy Corbyn is dangerous – twice as many as say this of Theresa May (11%).
Three in ten Britons say that Theresa May is a breath of fresh air (29%) – compared to 19% who say the same of Jeremy Corbyn. However, Jeremy Corbyn is the politician thought most likely to say what he actually thinks (31%).
Two thirds of the British public say that Donald Trump is dangerous (67%) and 40% say that he is increasing divisions in society.
Britons appear less sure what to make of Hillary Clinton – ‘dangerous’ is the word most associated wither her, but this is only selected by 21%.

FINDINGS IN DETAIL

For each of the following pairs of statements, which comes closest to your own opinion?

Option 1	%	%	Option 2	Don’t know
Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister*	57% (-1)	23% (+4)	Jeremy Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister*	20% (-3)
Labour has more chance of winning a general election if Jeremy Corbyn is leader	35%	36%	Labour has more chance of winning a general election if Tony Blair is leader	30%
The UK should use military aircraft to enforce a ‘no fly zone’ in Syria	30%	40%	The UK should not try to enforce a ‘no fly zone’ in Syria	29%
The situation in Syria would be better now if Britain and other Western allies had used military force in 2013	31%	31%	The situation in Syria would be worse now if Britain and other Western allies had used military force in 2013	39%
The UK should send soldiers to take action against Syria	17%	63%	The UK should not send soldiers to take action against Syria	21%
The government should prioritise reducing immigration when negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU	39%	49%	The government should prioritise getting favourable trade deals with EU countries when negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU	11%
Theresa May’s government is right to give up the target of balancing the Government’s budget by 2020	46%	34%	Theresa May’s government should continue to target balancing the Government’s budget by 2020	20%

Base: GB adults (n=2,037) *Changes since July 2016.

80% of Britons aged 65+ say that Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn – just 10% report the opposite.
One in three 2015 Labour voters say that Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister when compared with Jeremy Corbyn (31%).
More than half of Labour voters (56%) say that Labour has more chance of winning a general election with Corbyn as leader, while a quarter (26%) think Tony Blair would offer Labour a greater chance of winning a general election. Conservative voters think the opposite – 23% say Labour has more chance of winning under Corbyn, compared to 49% under Blair.
Conservative voters are more likely than voters for any other party to say that the situation in Syria would be better now if Britain and other Western allies had used military force in 2013 (39% vs 26% who say that it would be worse). Labour voters, on the other hand, are more likely to think the situation would be worse than better (36% vs 26%).
Older adults (aged 65+) are most likely to say that the UK should not send soldiers to take action against Syria (76%) – compared to just 56% of 18-24 year olds.
Conservative voters are divided on whether the government should prioritise reducing immigration when negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU, or prioritise getting favourable trade deals with EU countries (48% vs 45%), while Labour voters are much more likely to say they should prioritise getting favourable trade deals than reducing immigration (62% vs 26%).
Older Britons (aged 65+) are considerably more likely to say that Theresa May’s government is right to give up the target of balancing the Government’s budget by 2020 (60% vs 29%), while younger Britons (aged 18-24) are more evenly divided (35% vs 38%).

Please select which of the following characteristics you think apply to each of the following politicians. You can choose more than one characteristic for each politician, and more than one politician can have the same characteristics.

	Theresa May	Jeremy Corbyn	Hillary Clinton	Donald Trump
Dangerous	11%	22%	20%	67%
Exciting	12%	7%	7%	6%
Inspiring people to become interested in politics	19%	21%	16%	5%
Breath of fresh air	29%	19%	9%	5%
Increasing divisions in society	16%	22%	11%	40%
Nasty	9%	11%	14%	55%
Says what they actually think	27%	31%	17%	31%
None of these	14%	13%	21%	2%
Don’t know	12%	10%	15%	5%

Base: GB adults (n=2,037).

Britons in the oldest age group (65+) are particularly likely to say that Jeremy Corbyn is dangerous and increasing divisions in society (38%).
Half of Britons aged 65+ say that Theresa May is a breath of fresh air (51%) – just 15% of 18-24 year olds say this. Britons aged 65+ are also particularly likely to say that Theresa May says what she actually thinks (40%).
While Theresa May is popular among Conservative voters, UKIP voters are also relatively likely to apply positive words and phrases to her – for example breath of fresh air (30%), and says what she actually thinks (29%).
31% of UKIP voters say that Hillary Clinton is dangerous – more than voters for any other party. They are also more likely to say she is nasty (21%).
UKIP voters are also much more likely than voters for all other parties to apply positive words or phrases to Donald Trump (14% say he is exciting, and 16% a breath of fresh air).

Date Published: 15th October 2016

Categories: GB | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Independent / Sunday Mirror

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,037 GB adults online between the 12th and 13th October 2016. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.