SUNDAY MIRROR / INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY POLL

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,045 GB adults online on 14 and 15 May 2014. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Date Published: 16 May 2014

Categories: Economy | Europe | Politics | Public and communities | Public Sector

Description

The UK Independence Party is heading for victory in next week's European Parliament election, with the support of 35% of those who say they are "absolutely certain to vote", according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. This equals the record 11-point lead for UKIP reported by ComRes at the end of April.

The poll also shows the Green Party pushing the Liberal Democrats into fifth place.

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling, ComRes said: "If this result is replicated next week it would send shockwaves through Westminster as all three major parties scramble to work out how to deal with UKIP. It is worth remembering though mid-term elections such as this are fairly poor barometers for what will happen at a General Election. Next year's race continues to look very tight."

European Parliament Voting Intention

UKIP 35% (+1)
Labour 24% (0)
Con 20% (-2)
Green 7% (+2)
LibDem 6% (-2)
Other 8% (0)

Figures in brackets show the change since last ComRes European election survey, conducted 9-11 May 2014.

General Election Voting Intention

Con 29% (0)
Lab 33% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
UKIP 19% (-1)
Other 11% (+2)

Figures in brackets show change since the last ComRes online survey, last month.

Labour's lead has fallen to four points from six, although on a uniform swing Ed Miliband would still win a majority of 46 seats. UKIP would win no seats.

The NHS

People don't believe Labour would keep its promise of guaranteed GP appointments, and are evenly divided on whether the NHS would be safer if Ed Miliband were prime minister.

I expect a Labour government would deliver Ed Miliband’s promise that anyone should be able to see a GP within 48 hours
Agree 27%
Disagree 47%
Don’t know 27%

The NHS would be safer under Labour than under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition
Agree 36% (+1)
Disagree 34% (0)
Don’t know 29% (-1)

Changes since February 2012.

Education

Coalition rows over free schools and free school meals have taken their toll on the Education Secretary's reputation: he is unpopular and half of voters think free schools are a waste of money.

Michael Gove is doing a good job as Education Secretary
Agree 15%
Disagree 48%
Don’t know 37%

Only a third of Conservative supporters (33%) think that Michael Gove is doing a good job.

The Government’s free schools policy is wasting money that could be better spent on improving existing state schools
Agree 49%
Disagree 18%
Don’t know 33%

Labour (65%) and Liberal Democrat (59%) supporters are particularly likely to think that free schools are a waste of money, but even among Conservative supporters more agree (35%) than disagree (27%) that the policy is wasting money.

Economic trust

Despite good employment figures this month and growing optimism about the economy, there has been no significant change in evaluations of the Conservative and Labour teams.

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 30% (-1)
Disagree 51% (+3)
Don't know 19% (-2)
Net agree -21

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 21% (+1)
Disagree 55% (+1)
Don't know 24% (-2)
Net agree -34

Changes since March.

Europe

Despite the rise in support for UKIP, voters have become slightly less hostile to the free movement of workers in the EU.

All citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the United Kingdom
Agree 25% (+2)
Disagree 54% (-3)

Change since August 2013. However, opinion was strongly in favour of free movement as recently as May 2009, when 58% agreed and 38% disagreed.

Scottish independence

If Scotland becomes independent, I would feel less pride in my country
England and Wales:
Agree 21%
Disagree 54%

Scotland (sub-sample 176):
Agree 18%
Disagree 61%

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,045 GB adults online on 14 and 15 May 2014. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.