Voting intention and political poll for the Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday.
Date Published: 15 Dec 2013
Categories: Economy | Politics | Public and communities | UK
The Conservatives have lost their advantage as a low-tax party, according to a ComRes opinion poll for tomorrow's Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday.
While 30 per cent of voters expect taxes would be higher if Labour wins the next election, the same number, 30 per cent, think taxes would be higher if the Conservatives win. But 38 per cent think that public services would be worse if the Tories win, while only 24 per cent think services would suffer if Labour win.
The poll finds Labour leading the Tories by 7 points, up one point since last month, enough to give Ed Miliband a majority of 84 seats:
Con 29% (0)
Lab 36% (+1)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 8% (-2)
Other 9% (0)
Despite this good news for Labour, there has been a big drop since May in the number of people who think that Ed Miliband will be prime minister in 2015.
Ed Miliband is likely to be prime minister after the next election
Agree 21% (-10 since May 2013)
Disagree 40% (+3)
Don’t know 39% (+7)
Tax and public services
If Labour win the next General Election, I expect that I would pay more tax than if the Conservatives win it
Agree 30% Disagree 34% Don't know 35%
If the Conservatives win the next General Election, I expect that I would pay more tax than if Labour win it
Agree 30% Disagree 34% Don't know 36%
If Labour win the next General Election, I expect the quality of public services, such as education and the NHS, would become worse than if the Conservatives win it
Agree 24% Disagree 44% Don't know 32%
If the Conservatives win the next General Election, I expect the quality of public services, such as education and the NHS, would become worse than if Labour win it
Agree 38% Disagree 32% Don't know 30%
MPs should receive no pay at all and go back to being part-time representatives and earn their living entirely from outside interests
Agree 32% Disagree 46% Don't know 21%
£74,000 a year is an unreasonably high salary for MPs
Agree 70% Disagree 19% Don't know 11%
“Wisdom of crowds”
The Labour Party is unlikely to win the next election
Agree 30% (+3 since July 2012)
Disagree 31% (-3)
Don’t know 38% (-1)
The questions about what people expect to happen at the election were inspired by American research that has suggested such expectations are a better predictor of results than conventional opinion polls.
ComRes interviewed 2,027 GB adults online 11-13 December 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables on the ComRes website.