Savanta ComRes Political Tracker – November 2021

Savanta ComRes Political Tracker for November 2021, including Westminster Voting Intention

PM’s Favourability Rating Drops to Lowest Ever Level – Savanta ComRes

Lowest ever favourability ratings for Prime Minister (-14) and government in general (-16).
Previous lows for PM in Sept 20, Oct 20 and Oct 21 (-9); for government in Jan 21 and Oct 21 (-12).
Headline Voting Intention: Lab 38 (-2); Con 36 (+2); LD 10 (=); Green 5 (=); SNP 4 (-1); Other 8 (+1); change from Savanta ComRes / Daily Mail poll 11-12 Nov
Best PM: Boris Johnson 39% (=); Keir Starmer 30% (-2); Don’t know 31% (+2); change from October political tracker.

The Prime Minister’s net favourability rating has dropped to its lowest level ever according to the Savanta ComRes November political tracker.

In a month where the Conservative poll lead has slipped following continued allegations of sleaze and subsequent unrest within the Conservative Party, the Prime Minister’s net favourability among the general public drops 5pts from -9 in October to -14 now, while his net favourability among those who voted Conservative at the last election drops 13pts from +48 to +35.

Net favourability towards the government in general has also dropped from -12 last month to -16 this month, also its lowest ever rating since the advent of the Savanta ComRes political tracker in May 2020, and reflects a drop among Conservative 2019 voters of 15pts (+43 in Oct, to +28 now).

These low ratings for the PM and the government coincides with a second consecutive Labour lead in a Savanta ComRes poll.

If a general election were tomorrow, 38% (-2) of the public say they would vote Labour compared to 36% (+2) who would vote Conservative, reducing the lead from 6pts in Savanta ComRes’ recent voting intention poll for the Daily Mail, to just two points today.

According to Electoral Calculus, this lead would still be enough for Keir Starmer’s party to gain more seats than the Conservatives, but they would remain some way short of majority.

However, if the proposed new boundaries are introduced, such a slim 2pt Labour lead would actually end up in the Conservatives being the largest party, although there are fewer potential natural coalition partners for the Tories than for Labour.

Despite the bad news for the government in this poll, in other metrics usually equally or more indicative of potential general election performance, Boris Johnson is still considerably ahead of Keir Starmer on the ‘Best PM’ metric, with 39% (=) saying that the current PM would be the best Prime Minister, while 30% say it’ll be Keir Starmer (-2) and 31% say they don’t know (+2).

There also appear to be no significant changes in the perceived economic competencies of either of the major parties.

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says,

“Another Labour lead and significant drops in the government and PM’s favourability – both to their lowest ever levels in our still, relatively new, tracker – should be good news for Labour but, the fact remains, that the drop in Conservative support tends to be going ‘nowhere’ rather than directly to Labour.”

“Conservative voters are not abandoning the party for Labour, nor are Red Wall voters appearing to return to Starmer’s party, and while his own favourability and Best PM ratings are at best static or, at worst, also dropping, it’s difficult to envisage a Labour Party ready to take advantage of continued Conservative blunders.”

“Waiting for the Tories to screw things up has felt like Labour’s strategy for almost 18 months and now, presented with an opportunity, there’s nothing to suggest in this polling that they’re ready, or trusted, to take advantage.”

Date Published: 24/11/2021

Categories: Politics | Public and communities | UK

Client: Savanta ComRes

Methodology

Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,184 UK adults online aged 18+ from 19-21 November 2021. Data were weighted to be representative of UK adults by age, sex, region and SEG. Voting intention is also weighted by past vote recall (2019 GE and 2016 EU Referendum) and likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.