Independent on Sunday Poll

ComRes poll for Independent on Sunday: Voters braced for tough Budget

Con 36% (+1)
Lab 30% (-3)
LD 23% (+2)
Other 11% (+2)

(Change since Independent poll published 2 June; virtually no change since general election GB figures: Con 37%, Lab 30%, LD 24%)

Electoralcalculus shows CON 30 SHORT OF MAJORITY.

Commentary from Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes:

· As might be expected the Tory lead is shakiest among under-45s
· It’s interesting though to see the regional breaks – Labour are just 2% points ahead of the Tories in Northern England where public spending cuts are likely to be hard felt, while Labour are in 3^rd place in Wales. The Tories do best in the Midlands where they have a 16% point lead over Labour.

Other questions:

“Child benefit should be withdrawn from better-off families”
Agree 53%
Disagree 42%
DK 4%

· Women are more reluctant than men to see it withdrawn – 48% to 37% respectively disagree
· The age groups least likely to benefit from child benefit are most likely to agree...but perhaps these comprise people who have received it and seen the injustice of giving it to everyone!
· C2s disagree most, possibly because of fears they will lose out if child benefit were to be means tested
· Conservative voters are most likely to agree (63%), Labour voters least likely (47%). 57% of Lib Dem voters agree.

“The winter fuel allowance should be withdrawn from better-off elderly people”
Agree 39%
Disagree 58%
DK 3%

· Again women are more likely than men to disagree
· Interestingly, age-wise this follows the pattern in the previous statement, with agreement among older people more prevalent than among younger folk
· However, majorities of voters for all three main parties disagree albeit narrowly

“I would be prepared to pay more income tax rather than see public services cut”
Agree 48%
Disagree 45%
DK 7%

· There are no major demographic patterns but there are among voters – 51% of Tory voters disagree, as do only 38% of Lib Dems and 34% of Labour supporters

“The coalition government is deliberately exaggerating the financial problems to justify cuts to the public sector”
Agree 38%
Disagree 49%
DK 13%

· Younger people are the most suspicious of the government’s motives on this measure, as are DE voters and Scots
· There is a huge party variance: 19% of Tory voters agree, compared with 34% of Lib Dems (which strikes me as remarkably high) and 66% of Labour voters