Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday Political Poll

Conservative lead up to 10 points; Lib Dems in third.

Date Published: 30 Apr 2010

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Description

Conservative lead up to 10 points; Lib Dems in third.

Con        38 (+2)
Lab         28 (-1)
LD          25 (-1)
Others       9 (-)

(Change since ComRes poll for Independent/ITV News 28 April.)
 
Forecast seat distribution:
 
Con      315   11 seats short of a majority
Lab       236
LD        69
O          12
 
 
Commentary from Andrew Hawkins, chairman, ComRes
 
·         This is our largest Tory lead since February
·         With 69% ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, turnout should reach 70% on Thursday
·         The result will turn on the extent to which different age and social groups actually turn out to vote on the day – only 52% of the recently Lib Dem-loving 18-24s are certain, compared to the Tory-loyal 65+, 79% of whom are certain to vote.  The 61% figures for C2s is unduly low, possibly because some Labour voters are feeling demotivated
·         Support for Lib Dems appears to have slipped among most demographic groups as well as regionally.  On Thursday Lib Dem support could actually be worse...in 2001 an estimated 39% of 18-24s voted and in 2005 this went down to 37%. So that 52% figure that we picked up today could well overstate likely Lib Dem support on the day, notwithstanding that the parties are almost level-pegging among this age group in today’s poll
 
 
 
Additional questions:
 
Q1.  Which one of these possible outcomes would you personally prefer to see from the forthcoming general election?
 
                                                                                                11 April                         18 April                         2 May
a Conservatives forming a government with an
overall majority                                                                            29%                            25%                          31%
 
b Conservatives forming a government with the
support of the Liberal Democrats in a hung parliament                     20%                            28%                          15%

c Labour Party forming a government with the
support of the Liberal Democrats in a hung parliament                     26%                            28%                          22%

d Labour Party forming a government with an
overall majority                                                                            25%                           19%                          19%

 
 
Do you agree or disagree with these statements?
 
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of the leaders' debates.

Agree                    19%
Disagree                75%
 
·         27% of Lib Dem voters, 22% of Labour voters and 15% of Tory voters have changed their minds
·         24% of 2005 Labour voters say they changed their minds because of the debates, compared with only 15% of 2005 Lib Dem voters and 10% of 2005 Tories
 
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of Gordon Brown calling a voter a "bigoted woman".

Agree                    11%
Disagree                85%
 
·         The most stunning figure here is that one in five - 19% - of people in social group DE agree.  People in the north and midlands are most likely to agree
·         Also worrying will be that 14% of Lib Dems and 14% of undecideds/refuseds agree, as do 13% of 2005 Labour voters – suggesting the incident will indeed cost Labour some votes even if not on as dramatic a scale as initially thought
 
The voting system in this country needs to be changed.

                                                                Feb 2010              2 May
 
Agree                                                       47%                        55%
Disagree                                                  48%                        38%
 
·         ABs and older voters are most likely to agree and, perhaps counter-intuitively, 18-24s are most likely to disagree
 
Regardless of how I vote, Nick Clegg should play some part in the next Government

                                                                17 April                 2 May
 
Agree                                                       64%                        47%
Disagree                                                   23%                        42%