Sunday Mirror / Independent Political Poll March 2017

Political and Voting Intention poll for the Sunday Mirror and the Independent.

The Budget

• The Government’s U-turn on an increase in National Insurance Contributions for the self-employed chimes with voters – more than half (54%) oppose the measure
• A greater proportion of the public agree than disagree that Theresa May’s Government does not have the best interests at heart of ‘people like me’ (44% compared to 33%)
• Similarly, the public are more likely to disagree than agree that the Budget overall was fair (40% v 34%)

 

Theresa May and IndyRef2

• Theresa May’s stance on a second Scottish referendum has broad public support – three in five (59%) agree with her insistence on a second referendum taking place only after Britain has concluded the process of leaving the EU, while a quarter disagree (23%)
• Almost half the public say that Theresa May ‘comes across as a modern day Margaret Thatcher’, including 50% of Conservative and 52% of Labour voters.

 

Brexit

• The British public are split over the Brexit process, with roughly equal proportions agreeing that Parliament should be able to veto the Government’s proposed Brexit vote as disagreeing (38% v 42%)
• The public are more likely to agree than disagree that they do not expect Britain to complete leaving the EU within the current planned two year period (47% v 32%), although there is no clear majority

 

Taxation

• The public are split on whether or not they think it is important for the Government to balance its books, even if that means cutting spending on public services, with 43% agreeing and 40% disagreeing with this statement
• However, voters are much clearer in being far less keen on taxes on expenditure than on income – opposition is much greater to increases in VAT and fuel, at 73% and 74% respectively, than it is to other taxes
• Restoring the 50p income tax rate for those earning more than £150,000 a year from 45p to 50p (perhaps unsurprisingly) is the most popular measure, with three-quarters (77%) who support this policy, including 76% of Conservative voters

 

Voting intention

• Despite not being widely perceived as ‘having the interests of people like me at heart’, when it comes to voting intention the Government are in a dominant position, with the Conservatives on 42% (up one point since February) of the vote – 17 points ahead of Labour, who are on 25% (down one point on February).

1. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Statement	Agree	Disagree	Don’t know
Overall, the Government’s Budget measures announced last week were fair	34%	40%	27%
Theresa May’s Government has the best interests at heart of people like me	33%	44%	23%
I view it as important that the Government balances its books, even if that means cutting some public services to save money	43%	40%	17%
Theresa May comes across as a modern day Margaret Thatcher	47%	37%	15%
Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media*	31% (-6)	47% (+7)	23% (NC)
Parliament should be able to veto the Government’s proposed Brexit deal once it has been negotiated	38%	42%	21%
I do not expect Britain to conclude the process of leaving the EU within two years, as currently planned	47%	32%	21%
Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence takes place only once Britain has concluded the process of leaving the EU	59%	23%	18%

Base: All respondents (n=2,026). *Brackets indicate change since December 2015

• Half (51%) of those aged over 65 think that the measures announced in the budget were fair, compared to a quarter of those aged 18-24 (23%).
• Scottish voters are split on whether Theresa May should insist that any second Scottish referendum on independence should take place only after Britain has left the EU, with 44% agreeing with and 48% disagreeing. In comparison, voters in England and Wales are more likely to agree than disagree (60% v 21%).
• The proportion who think that Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media has fallen by six percentage points since December 2015. 31% now think he is being treated unfairly, but nearly half (47%) disagree.
• Two thirds of Labour voters (64%) agree that Jeremy Corbyn is being treated unfairly by the media, compared to 69% in December 2015.

Q2. Thinking about ways in which the Government could raise money to balance its books, would you support or oppose each of the following?

Statement	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
Increasing the rate of income tax for people earning more than £150,000 from 45p to 50p	77%	16%	7%
Increasing corporation tax on the profits of companies from the current rate of 20% to 25%	60%	24%	16%
Increasing all rates of income tax by 1p	45%	44%	11%
Increasing the fees payable to settle the will when someone dies, from the current flat rate of £215 to as much as £20,000 for wills of more than £2million	38%	42%	20%
Increasing inheritance tax from 40% to 50% for estates worth more than £325,000	37%	49%	14%
Increasing National Insurance Contributions for the self-employed	32%	54%	14%
Increasing the main rate of VAT from 20% to 21%	18%	73%	9%
Increasing duty on diesel and petrol	17%	74%	9%

Base: All respondents (n=2,026).

 

Voting intention

The Conservatives enjoy a 17 point lead over Labour, and are up one percentage point from February, whereas Labour are down one point. Interestingly three in ten of those who voted for UKIP in the General Election 2015 (29%) say they would vote Conservative now.

Con      42% (+1)

Lab       25% (-1)

LD        12% (+1)

UKIP     10% (-1)

SNP      5% (NC)

Green   4% (NC)

Other   2% (NC)

Figures in brackets indicate change since February.

Date Published: 18/03/2017

Categories: Elections | GB | Politics | Public and communities | Voting Intention

Client: Sunday Mirror & Independent

Methodology

ComRes interviewed 2,026 GB adults online between the 15th and 17th March 2017. Data were weighted to be representative of all adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model.

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