October 28, 2020

Pollwatch: Running out of road

Author:
Chris Hopkins, Associate Director
almost half of UK adults (45%) believe the UK to have a weaker negotiating position than the EU

Brits are twice as likely to say that the UK has more to lose than the EU if Brexit negotiations fail


Two in five (43%) UK adults say that the UK has more to lose than the EU if Brexit negotiations fail, compared to just a quarter who say that the EU has more to lose than the UK.

The polling by Savanta ComRes also shows that almost half of UK adults (45%) believe the UK to have a weaker negotiating position than the EU, compared to just one in five (19%) who believe the reverse.

Both of these findings are also reflected by the public being more likely to say that the UK shows more desire than the EU to get a deal done (34% vs 26%, respectively) and that the EU, rather than the UK, has the advantage in the negotiations at the moment (32% vs 27%, respectively).

Naturally, there are stark differences between those who voted Leave and Remain in 2016 but, on the whole, Leavers are less likely to be positive about the UK in this poll than Remainers are about the EU. Three in ten (29%) Leavers, compared to two thirds (65%) of Remainers say that the UK has the weaker negotiating position, whereas a third (34%) of Leavers say the same about the EU compared to just 7% of Remainers.

Similarly, two in five (41%) Leavers say that the UK has the advantage at the moment, nine points fewer than the Remainers who say the EU has the advantage at the moment (50%).

This research comes as a second poll by Savanta ComRes of UK business leaders shows half (51%) say that the Government is handling Brexit poorly compared to just a quarter (28%) who say they are handling it well. A majority (57%) of business leaders also say that the Government has not provided enough support, guidance or information to businesses about Brexit, with just a third (33%) saying that they have.

Elsewhere in the poll, our latest Westminster voting intention sees the Conservative Party’s lead over the Labour Party narrow to 3pts.

The Conservatives remain on 42%, while Labour are up 3pts on last week and are on 39%. The Liberal Democrats have fallen 1pt and are on 7%, with the other parties, including the Greeen Party and SNP, on a combined total of 12%, down 2pts from last week.

 

Methodology: Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,111 UK adults aged 18+ online between 23 September and 26 October 2020. Data were weighted to be representative of United Kingdom adults by age, gender, region, ethnicity and socio-economic characteristics including social grade. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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