November 24, 2021

Pollwatch: November Political Tracker

Author:
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director
This lead would still be enough for Keir Starmer’s party to gain more seats than the Conservatives

The Prime Minister’s net favourability rating has dropped to its lowest level ever according to the Savanta ComRes November Political Tracker.

New polling from the latest Savanta ComRes Political Tracker, including favourability ratings, Best PM ratings, and our latest headline voting intention.


The Prime Minister’s net favourability rating has dropped to its lowest level ever according to the Savanta ComRes November Political Tracker.

In a month where the Conservative poll lead has slipped following continued allegations of sleaze and subsequent unrest within the Conservative Party, the Prime Minister’s net favourability among the general public drops 5pts from -9 in October to -14 now, while his net favourability among those who voted Conservative at the last election drops 13pts from +48 to +35.

Net favourability towards the government in general has also dropped from -12 last month to -16 this month, also its lowest ever rating since the advent of the Savanta ComRes political tracker in May 2020, and reflects a drop among Conservative 2019 voters of 15pts (+43 in Oct, to +28 now).

These low ratings for the PM and the government coincides with a second consecutive Labour lead in a Savanta ComRes poll.

If a general election were tomorrow, 38% (-2) of the public say they would vote Labour compared to 36% (+2) who would vote Conservative, reducing the lead from 6pts in Savanta ComRes’ recent voting intention poll for the Daily Mail, to just two points today.

According to Electoral Calculus, this lead would still be enough for Keir Starmer’s party to gain more seats than the Conservatives, but they would remain some way short of majority.

However, if the proposed new boundaries are introduced, such a slim 2pt Labour lead would actually end up in the Conservatives being the largest party, although there are fewer potential natural coalition partners for the Tories than for Labour.

Despite the bad news for the government in this poll, in other metrics usually equally or more indicative of potential general election performance, Boris Johnson is still considerably ahead of Keir Starmer on the ‘Best PM’ metric, with 39% (=) saying that the current PM would be the best Prime Minister, while 30% say it’ll be Keir Starmer (-2) and 31% say they don’t know (+2).

There also appear to be no significant changes in the perceived economic competencies of either of the major parties.

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says,

“Another Labour lead and significant drops in the government and PM’s favourability – both to their lowest ever levels in our still, relatively new, tracker – should be good news for Labour but, the fact remains, that the drop in Conservative support tends to be going ‘nowhere’ rather than directly to Labour.”

“Conservative voters are not abandoning the party for Labour, nor are Red Wall voters appearing to return to Starmer’s party, and while his own favourability and Best PM ratings are at best static or, at worst, also dropping, it’s difficult to envisage a Labour Party ready to take advantage of continued Conservative blunders.”

“Waiting for the Tories to screw things up has felt like Labour’s strategy for almost 18 months and now, presented with an opportunity, there’s nothing to suggest in this polling that they’re ready, or trusted, to take advantage.”

To sign-up for our regular Pollwatch newsletter, click here

To see full results from our monthly political tracker, click here


View

Someone’s on the naughty list…

Read more

View

A drop in the ocean – Are consumers prepared to change water usage?

Eco Index 2021

Read more

Share

See more

Politics

Get in Touch

Make a start by telling us a little about what you're looking for.

If you’d like to speak with one of our experts right now, please call: 020 7632 3434 (UK) or +1 917 768-2710 (US)