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SCOTTISH POLITICAL TRACKER – OCTOBER 2022

Westminster voting intention: SNP 46% (=); LAB 30% (+5); CON 15% (-3); LD 7% (-1); Other 2% (-1)

Indy Ref II voting intention: Yes 45% (+1); No 46% (=); Undecided 8% (-2)

Holyrood constituency voting intention: SNP 47% (+1); LAB 25% (=); CON 17% (-1); LD 8% (=); Other 2% (-2)

Holyrood list voting intention: SNP 32% (-1); LAB 26% (+2); CON 19% (-1); Green 13% (=); LD 8% (=); Alba 2% (=); Other 1% (=)

Date Published

05/10/2022

Client

The Scotsman

Methodology

Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,029 Scottish adults aged 16+ online between 30 September – 04 October 2022. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of Scottish adults 16+ by age, gender, region, and past voting behaviour. Savanta ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Labour surge in Scotland amid Conservative woes – Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman

  • Westminster voting intention: SNP 46% (=); LAB 30% (+5); CON 15% (-3); LD 7% (-1); Other 2% (-1)
  • Indy Ref II voting intention: Yes 45% (+1); No 46% (=); Undecided 8% (-2)
  • Holyrood constituency voting intention: SNP 47% (+1); LAB 25% (=); CON 17% (-1); LD 8% (=); Other 2% (-2)
  • Holyrood list voting intention: SNP 32% (-1); LAB 26% (+2); CON 19% (-1); Green 13% (=); LD 8% (=); Alba 2% (=); Other 1% (=)

Labour’s vote share in Scotland if a General Election were tomorrow is now twice that of the Conservatives, according to a new poll by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman.

Labour hit 30% of the vote in the new poll, up five points from the last Savanta ComRes / The Scotsman poll in June, while the Conservatives drop three points to 15%.

The SNP remain on 46%, with Labour’s increased popularity not appearing to come from the SNP vote share.

Including voters who are unsure how they’d vote if a General Election were tomorrow, the SNP holds onto 85% of its 2019 vote, with Labour retaining four in five (79%) of its voters.

The Conservatives, however, retain only half (54%), with almost one in five (17%) directly switching to Labour and a further 21% saying they’re undecided.

The damage to the Conservative brand in the Westminster voting intention is not as clear in the Holyrood equivalents. In both the constituency vote (17%) and the list vote (19%), the Conservative vote share is down just one point from June.

The poll finds that Liz Truss (-57) has a lower net favourability score than Boris Johnson (-53), and Kwasi Kwarteng (-48) has a lower net favourability score than Rishi Sunak (-23).

Keir Starmer, meanwhile, is the only politician with a net positive score (+4) besides Nicola Sturgeon (+12).

The poll also asked voting intentions for a second independence referendum, where one again No (51%) retains the narrowest of leads over Yes (49%).

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says,

“The difference between Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives, particularly in the Westminster voting intention, will be particularly striking, with the former opening up a 15pt gap and fully establishing themselves as Scotland’s second party. Given the unpopularity of the Conservatives across the rest of the UK at the moment, it’s no surprise the story is similar in Scotland.”

“However, the SNP remaining strong on 46% is notable. I would not have been surprised to see Labour potentially eat into that SNP vote share, even marginally, and the fact that they did not all-but confirms that the Labour Party are fishing in the unionist vote pool rather than a specifically centre-left one in Scotland.”

“And even with 30% of the vote, without taking votes from the SNP directly, it’s unlikely that Labour would gain many more seats in Scotland. Their route to government, therefore, rests on beating the Conservatives handsomely in England and Wales, rather than relying on Scotland as they did under Blair and Brown.”

  1. 38028217_Scotland_Poll_W16_Final_Tables_20221005_Private 1.14 MB.

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